Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra: match statistics

Dinamo Tbilisi sit 3rd, while Gagra are eighth, and the hosts also have the better overall season record: 10 wins and 5 defeats compared with their opponents’ 6 victories and 9 losses. At home, Dinamo create significantly more in the final third, averaging 14 shots and 4.83 on target per match, whereas Gagra record 8.92 and 2.83 respectively away from home. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances: their average xG stands at 1.72, while the visitors allow chances worth 1.69 xG on the road. Gagra score just 0.83 goals per away game and fail to score in 42% of their away fixtures, which could be a problem against a team that averages 54% possession. However, Dinamo’s weaker recent defensive form calls for caution, as they have conceded 13 goals in their last 5 matches, making a draw a realistic scenario.

The BTTS signal is mixed: Dinamo records both teams scoring in 58% of its matches, while Gagra does so in only 50%, compared with a league average of 56%. The strongest argument for BTTS - No is the visitors’ attack, as they average 0.83 goals per season, just 0.6 goals in their last 5 matches, and recorded BTTS in only 20% of those fixtures. Gagra failed to score in 42% of its matches this season, while Dinamo has kept a clean sheet in 25% of games, clearly increasing the risk that the visitors will finish without scoring. Dinamo has been highly vulnerable defensively lately, conceding 2.6 goals per match over the last five league rounds, but Gagra’s lower finishing efficiency and average of 2.83 shots on target per game limit the reliability of an away goal. The hosts should create chances, supported by their xG of 1.51 and an average of 4.58 shots on target, but it is more likely that at least one team, primarily Gagra, will fail to score.

The strongest signal points to the Under 3.5 goals line: throughout the season, both teams finished with a maximum of three goals in 92% of their matches. Dinamo average 1.08 goals at home, while Gagra average 0.83 away, with the visitors failing to score in 42% of their matches. The hosts create more chances, averaging 1.51 xG and 4.58 shots on target compared with Gagra’s 1.16 xG and 2.83 shots on target, which supports a controlled advantage for Dinamo rather than an open game. Dinamo’s last five matches were more high-scoring, averaging 4.0 goals per game, but Gagra scored only 3 goals and conceded 5 during this period, so the projected total of 2.30 goals still clearly supports Under 3.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Dinamo victory at the final whistle, as both teams were level at the break in 58% of their matches. The opening stages should be cautious: Dinamo score an average of 0.50 goals before half-time, while Gagra average just 0.25, with the visitors failing to score before the break in 83% of matches. After the interval, the hosts possess greater attacking potential, generating an average xG of 1.51 compared with Gagra’s 1.16 and registering 4.58 shots on target per match versus the opponents’ 2.83. Gagra concede an average of 1.42 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in only 8% of their matches, increasing the likelihood of Dinamo scoring the decisive goal in the second half. The visitors’ form also points to a home advantage after the break, as Gagra have averaged 0.60 goals over their last five matches, while Dinamo have won 40% of their games compared with Gagra’s 20%.