Dodoma Jiji vs Mashujaa: match statistics

Mashujaa sit 8th, two points above 10th-placed Dodoma Jiji, and have averaged 1.2 points over their last five matches compared with the opponents’ 0.8. The hosts have lost every home match so far, failing to score in any of them, with 100% of such appearances ending without a goal. Although Dodoma Jiji average 67% possession at home and generate 1.59 xG, this translates into just 3 shots on target per match and a 0% conversion rate. Mashujaa average 0.67 goals away from home, but register 4 shots on target per match and have failed to score in 33% of their games—clearly a better figure than the hosts’. Both defences concede 1 goal per match under the analysed conditions, so a close and rather low-scoring contest is expected, but the visitors’ greater ability to finish their chances gives them a slight edge.

The strongest signal is Dodoma Jiji’s poor recent attacking output, with the team averaging just 0.4 goals over their last 5 matches, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those games. Mashujaa have also failed to impress in attack, averaging 0.8 goals across their last five outings, with BTTS at 40%. Although the hosts have recorded 0% clean sheets in their season statistics, their defensive xG against stands at just 0.52, limiting the prospects of an away goal. Mashujaa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches and have likewise failed to score in 33%, making a scenario in which at least one team ends the match without scoring a realistic possibility. The average xG from the last five matches—0.89 for Dodoma Jiji and 1.43 for Mashujaa—does not clearly offset the notably low number of goals actually scored by both teams. This supports the BTTS - No selection: at least one team is expected not to score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

The latest form of both teams points to limited goal production: Dodoma Jiji have averaged 0.4 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Mashujaa have averaged 0.8. Over the same period, the hosts’ matches produced an average of 1.6 goals, compared with 1.8 in Mashujaa matches—both clearly below the league average of 2.59. Dodoma Jiji have not recorded a single match with Over 2.5 goals in their last five appearances, whereas this occurred in 40% of the visitors’ matches. The xG projection is moderate: 0.89 for the hosts and 1.43 for the visitors over their last five matches, supporting a combined projection of around 2.20 goals. The Under 3.5 goals line has the edge, as both teams stayed below four goals in 100% of their matches in the seasonal data.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as both teams have been level at the break in 60% of their last five matches. The first halves are particularly cautious: Dodoma Jiji average 0.2 goals before the break, while Mashujaa have not scored at all, with the average total goals standing at just 0.8 and 0.4, respectively. However, the hosts have a better home record, winning 100% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals, while Mashujaa have lost 67% of their away fixtures. Dodoma’s advantage is weakened by their current form: they have averaged just 0.4 goals per match across their last five games and lost 60% of them, whereas Mashujaa average 0.8 goals and 1.2 points per match. After the break, the visitors are slightly more active, averaging 0.8 goals in their last five matches compared with 0.2 for the hosts, which increases the likelihood of the match ending level.