Dodoma Jiji vs Mbeya City: match statistics
Dodoma Jiji vs Mbeya City: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Dodoma Jiji played Mbeya City in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The match was played on 27 June 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Dodoma Jiji: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Mbeya City: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Dodoma Jiji scores 0.86 and concedes 1.18 goals per match. Mbeya City scores 0.79 and concedes 1.43. League average: 2.17 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Dodoma Jiji 32%, Mbeya City 32%. Over 2.5: Dodoma Jiji 39%, Mbeya City 32%. League level: BTTS 35%, Over 2.5 39%.
xG, shots and style
Dodoma Jiji has higher xG: 1.12 vs 1.01. Dodoma Jiji: 5.6 shots per match, Mbeya City: 4.9.
Match halves
Dodoma Jiji: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.43. Mbeya City: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.32.
Goals by minute
Dodoma Jiji: 31-45+ (7 goals). Mbeya City: 16-30 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligi kuu Bara: 2.17 goals per match, BTTS 35%, Over 2.5 39%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Dodoma Jiji possesses a clear defensive edge at home – they concede 0.79 goals per home match versus Mbeya City’s 1.64 away. Home clean sheet rate is 57% compared to guests’ 29%. Both teams produce similar xG (Dodoma 1.11 vs Mbeya 1.12) and nearly identical shots on target (2.83 vs 2.82), but Dodoma enjoys higher possession (54% vs 48%) and superior shot conversion (16% vs 14%). Last-5 form favors Mbeya – 2 wins and 5 goals in their last 5, while Dodoma has gone winless in those 5 and scored just 2, translating to 1.4 vs 0.4 points per game. Despite the visitors’ form uptick, the hosts’ defensive superiority and positive home goal difference (+5) point to a narrow home win with a relatively low goal count.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess the probability of BTTS - Yes as low: based on seasonal averages of 0.64 goals for Dodoma and 0.93 for Mbeya, the probability that the home side will score at least once is approximately 47% and the away side approximately 61%, which under independence yields around a 29% chance for BTTS. Seasonal BTTS rates reinforce this signal: Dodoma records BTTS in 36% of matches, Mbeya in 29%, and the league average is 35%, meaning both teams scoring is generally uncommon. Additionally, Dodoma failed to score in 57% of their season matches and have managed only 2 goals in the last 5 matches (0.4 per match) while conceding 10 (2.0 per match), which weakens their scoring capability. Mbeya shows stronger offensive metrics (5 goals in the last 5 matches, 1.0 per match, 2.82 shots on target and xG_for 1.12) and is likely to score, but the home side’s low efficiency and seasonal indicators suggest a No Goal scenario is more probable. Recommendation: No (71% vs 29%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on home xG (0.92) and away xG (1.12) and xG against (Dodoma 1.12, Mbeya 1.70), I calculated expected goals: 1.31 for Dodoma and 1.12 for Mbeya (total 2.43). With a mean of 2.43 the Poisson distribution yields roughly a 70% chance for Over 1.5, ~44% for Over 2.5 and ~23% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Match stats confirm a moderate number of chances — Mbeya averages 2.82 shots on target vs Dodoma 1.23 — and weaker defensive profiles (Dodoma concedes 1.21 goals per game, Mbeya 1.64; in the last 5 matches Dodoma conceded on average 2.0 goals). Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 21% for Dodoma and 43% for Mbeya, and BTTS occurs only in 36% and 29% of cases, suggesting more frequent low-to-moderate scores (e.g. 1–1 or 1–2) than high-scoring games. Therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the optimal line: a relatively high edge of about 70% with limited risk, while Over 2.5 (≈44%) is too uncertain.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the match is most often level: home teams were drawing at the break in 57% of games, away teams in 43%, while home sides led at half-time in only 2 matches (14%) and visitors in 3 (21%). Home teams score an average of 0.36 goals by half-time, while away teams average 0.57, so if a goal is scored before the break it is more often by the visitors. After the break the advantage lies with the away side — their average xG is 1.12 versus 0.92 for the hosts, and the number of on-target shots 2.82 vs 1.23 shows greater offensive potential from the visitors. Additionally, away teams win 36% of matches on the road compared to only 14% home wins for hosts and score more than 0.5 goals in the second half in 86% of games (hosts 43%), which supports a turnaround of the half-time draw. As a result the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Dodoma Jiji | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mbeya City is 250% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Dodoma Jiji · 1.4 pts / match - Mbeya City
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Dodoma Jiji is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
0.86 goals / match - Dodoma Jiji · 0.79 goals / match - Mbeya City
Dodoma Jiji is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.18 goals / match - Dodoma Jiji · 1.43 goals / match - Mbeya City
Dodoma Jiji scores in 54% of matches (15 of 28 matches), while Mbeya City keeps a clean sheet in 29% (8 of 28 matches).
Mbeya City scores in 50% of matches (14 of 28 matches), while Dodoma Jiji keeps a clean sheet in 43% (12 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Dodoma Jiji
Over / Under - Mbeya City
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Dodoma Jiji is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.32 pts / match - Dodoma Jiji · 1.04 pts / match - Mbeya City
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Dodoma Jiji - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mbeya City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Dodoma Jiji
Mbeya City
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).
Teams vs league
| Dodoma Jiji | Liga | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.04 | 2.17 | • 2.21 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 32% | 35% | ▼ 32% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 39% | 39% | ▼ 32% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 39% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 60% | ▲ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 61% | 63% | • 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Dodoma Jiji 0 - 1 - 0 Mbeya City. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Dodoma Jiji vs Mbeya City?
The Ligi kuu Bara match finished Dodoma Jiji 1:1 Mbeya City. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Dodoma Jiji vs Mbeya City?
Dodoma Jiji score 0.86 goals per game on average and Mbeya City 0.79. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 2.17 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 39% of games. Both teams score in 32% of Dodoma Jiji's matches and 32% of Mbeya City's.
What form are Dodoma Jiji and Mbeya City in?
Over the last 5 games Dodoma Jiji have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Mbeya City 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Dodoma Jiji vs Mbeya City?
The statistical background for Dodoma Jiji vs Mbeya City — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.