Doncaster Rovers vs Burton Albion: match statistics

Burton Albion sit 8th in the table, while Doncaster Rovers are 21st, giving the visitors the edge when assessing the season as a whole. Burton have won 2 of their 4 away matches, whereas Doncaster are still without a home win, although they have drawn 2 of their 3 games. The hosts create more chances on home soil, averaging 1.42 xG compared with Burton’s 0.99 away from home, but both teams average 1 goal in these conditions. Doncaster’s advantage in shots, 14.67 to 8.5 per match, has therefore not translated into greater efficiency, while the hosts concede an average of 1.33 goals at home, compared with 1.5 goals conceded by the visitors away. Since both teams have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, the outlook remains cautious, but Burton’s results on the road so far tip the balance slightly in their favour.

In Doncaster’s home matches, both teams scored in 100% of games, compared with 50% in Burton’s away matches; the figure was 60% for each team across their last 5 matches. Doncaster average 2.0 goals at home, while Burton concede 1.5 away, which points to a home goal. The visitors’ chances are supported by the fact that Doncaster concede an average of 1.8 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet there, although Burton score only 1.0 goal per away match. The expected goals for both attacks are moderate — 1.09 for Doncaster and 0.99 for Burton — so the risk of either team failing to score remains significant. Even so, weaker defenses and both teams scoring in 60% of each side’s last 5 matches give BTTS - Yes the edge.

Doncaster’s home matches have gone over the 1.5-goal line in 100% of cases, while Burton’s away matches have done so in 75%, making this the strongest signal for this line. The hosts score an average of 2.0 goals and concede 1.8, while the visitors score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match. Both teams have also been conceding goals in their last five matches: Doncaster average 1.6 conceded and Burton 1.8, supporting a prediction of at least two goals. With an expected total of 2.75 goals, I’m backing Over 1.5, as the higher 2.5 line has less support in the last five matches: it was surpassed in 40% of Doncaster’s games and 60% of Burton’s.

A draw at half-time is a realistic scenario: Doncaster were level at the break in 40% of their home matches, while Burton did so in 50% of their away games. The visitors conceded an average of just 0.25 goals before half-time and kept a clean sheet at the break in 75% of those matches, limiting the chances of the hosts taking an early lead. The match could turn around after the break, as Burton conceded an average of 1.25 goals in second halves away from home, while scoring just 0.25. Doncaster averaged 2.0 goals per home match, compared with Burton’s 1.0 away, so my HT/FT pick is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time. Confidence in the pick is limited, however, by the small sample size and the fact that Doncaster won only 20% of their home matches, while Burton won 50% of their away games.