Dongguan United vs Hebei Kungfu: match statistics

Neither team has won at the venue in question yet: Dongguan United have lost 78% of their home matches, while Hebei Kungfu have lost 63% of their away fixtures. The hosts are in poor form, with 4 defeats and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, whereas the visitors have recorded 1 win, 3 draws and just 1 defeat during the same period. Hebei’s defence looks significantly more solid, conceding an average of 1.38 goals away from home compared with Dongguan’s 2.22 at home. However, their attack scores just 0.50 goals per match and fails to find the net in 63% of away games. Dongguan create slightly better chances, with an average xG of 1.44 compared with the opponents’ 1.00, but convert only 5% of their shots and fail to score in 44% of home matches. Given the limited attacking efficiency of both teams and Hebei’s high away draw rate of 38%, the most likely outcome is a share of the points.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Hebei Kungfu scores an average of only 0.5 goals per match and failed to score in as many as 63% of their games this season. Dongguan United are not particularly clinical either, averaging 0.8 goals with an 8% shot conversion rate, although Hebei’s opponents concede an average of 1.38 goals. The seasonal BTTS rate stands at 50% for the home side, but only 38% for the away side, clearly below the league average of 55%. The last five matches for both teams produced BTTS in 60% of cases; however, Hebei created just 0.94 xG per match during this period, which limits the likelihood of an away goal. The most probable scenario therefore remains one in which at least one team, primarily Hebei, fails to score.

The profile of both teams clearly limits the potential for a high-scoring game: Dongguan United have not had a single match with over 3.5 goals, while Hebei Kungfu have exceeded this line in only 13% of their matches. The hosts score an average of 0.8 goals per game, compared with just 0.5 for the visitors, while their shot conversion rates are low at 8% and 6%, respectively. The attacking potential created is also moderate, with average xG figures of 1.12 for Dongguan and 1.00 for Hebei, supporting a projection of around 2.00 total goals. In their last five matches, each team had at least three goals in 40% of games, but Dongguan scored only 4 goals and Hebei 5. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the season-long rates of matches finishing below this line stand at 100% for the hosts and 87% for the visitors.

The strongest signal is a cautious first half: Hebei Kungfu were level at half-time in 75% of their away matches and did not trail in any of them after 45 minutes, conceding an average of 0.00 goals. Dongguan United have not led at the break in any of their last five matches, were behind at half-time in 60% of them, and scored just 0.2 goals per game before the interval. However, the visitors have been clearly more effective in their current run of form, scoring 1.0 goal per match compared with the hosts’ 0.8, while Dongguan have conceded as many as 1.8 goals on average across their last five fixtures. The hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, whereas Hebei Kungfu have suffered just one defeat and recorded as many as 3 draws over the same period. A draw at half-time followed by an away win therefore appears to be the most likely scenario, although Hebei’s high draw rate also supports a significant probability of an X/X outcome.