Dundalk vs Derry City: match statistics

Dundalk possess a clear home offensive edge: on average 1.78 goals per game and 6.22 shots on target from 14.78 attempts, while Derry on the road record just 0.89 goals and 3.11 shots on target from 10.11 attempts; the higher xG 1.74 versus 1.23 confirms the hosts’ superior attacking potential. The home side convert chances better (conversion rate 12% vs 9%) and have 0% of home matches without scoring, whereas Derry fail to score in 44% of away fixtures, which materially limits their prospects. A downside for Dundalk is recent defending — 8 goals conceded in the last 5 matches (1.6 per game), despite conceding 1.0 goals per home game on the season (xG against 1.45); Derry have conceded 4 in their last 5 (0.8 per game), so the visitors may have counter-attacking opportunities. Over the longer term the hosts win 56% of home matches and have a +7 home goal difference, while Derry win only 11% of away games and have a -2 away goal difference, giving Dundalk clear favorite status. Considering the superiority in shots, xG and conversion and Derry’s high rate of goalless away games, I tip a Dundalk win; I estimate roughly 60% chance for the hosts, 30% for a draw and 10% for the visitors.

Both teams have high season BTTS rates: Dundalk 60% and Derry 56%, with a league average of 59%, providing a strong baseline signal for BTTS - Yes. Dundalk generates 1.86 xG per match, averages 5.7 shots on target, and has 29 goals scored and 27 conceded this season, while Derry allows 1.62 xG and concedes 1.11 goals on average — this suggests Dundalk should find the net. Derry has 1.23 xG_for and an average xG_for of 1.58 in the last 5 matches, but actually scored only 0.6 goals in those 5 and had 40% BTTS, indicating finishing issues despite chance creation. Clean sheets are rare: Dundalk 30% and Derry 22% clean sheets, and the league average goals is 2.68, so statistically matches in this league more often end with goals from both sides. Given Dundalk’s xG advantage (1.86 vs 1.62 for Derry), the high season BTTS rates for both teams and the low clean sheet percentages, I assess BTTS 'Yes' as more likely.

Average xG points to a combined 2.80 goals: calculated as the average of Dundalk’s attacking xG (1.86) and xG against Derry (1.62) gives 1.74 for the home side, while the average of Derry’s attacking xG (1.23) and xG against Dundalk (0.89) gives 1.06 for the away team. Seasonal stats show Dundalk have 60% of matches over 1.5 goals, Derry 56%, and over 2.5 at 50% and 44% respectively, which gives a moderate edge for Over 2.5 but a stronger signal for Over 1.5. Dundalk create significantly more chances (15.5 shots and 5.7 on target per match vs 10.11/3.11 for Derry), which, combined with xG 1.86 vs 1.23, increases the likelihood of a higher goal output from the home team. Both teams have a high percentage of BTTS games: 60% for Dundalk and 56% for Derry, and the league averages 2.68 goals per match, so the projected 2.80 is above the league average. As a result I recommend Over 1.5 as the best line (strongest signal), viewing Over 2.5 as moderately likely (~55%) and Over 3.5 as unlikely.

The most likely scenario is Dundalk leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1). Dundalk averages 1.86 xG per game versus Derry’s 1.23 xG and registers 5.7 shots on target compared to 3.11, giving them a clear creative advantage. In their last five matches Dundalk led at the break in 60% of games and averaged 0.8 goals by half-time versus 0.2 for Derry, while in the second half they average 1.0 goal compared to Derry’s 0.33, which increases the likelihood of maintaining or extending the lead. Derry concede an average of 1.62 xG on the road and have only an 11% away win rate, whereas Dundalk win 30% of home matches and average 1.4 points per home game, so I prefer the home side. At the same time the high share of draws across the season (50% for hosts and 56% for visitors) justifies a significant allocation to HT/FT draw scenarios (X/X 22%, X/1 14%) as an alternative.