Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers: match statistics

Shamrock Rovers lead the table and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while seventh-placed Dundalk have picked up just 1 point over the same period, scoring 5 goals and conceding 12. The visitors’ defensive advantage is clear: they have conceded 35 goals over the full season compared with the hosts’ 58, and concede an average of 1.18 goals away from home, while Dundalk concede 1.59 per game at home. Even so, the hosts create more chances on their own ground, posting an xG of 1.78 compared with Shamrock’s 1.56 away from home, and average 1.53 goals scored against 1.24 for the visitors. This makes a winner pick less certain, especially as Shamrock have won 35% of their away matches, but the teams’ recent form favours the visitors.

In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of Dundalk’s games and 60% of Shamrock Rovers’ games, which supports a BTTS - Yes pick. The visitors averaged 2.4 goals during this period, while the hosts conceded 2.4, so Shamrock Rovers look highly likely to score. Dundalk have scored just 1.0 goal per game recently, but their average xG was 1.47, while the visitors conceded an average of 1.2 goals. The risk to this pick is that Shamrock Rovers failed to score in 35% of their league matches, while Dundalk kept a clean sheet in 39%. Despite this, the visitors’ recent scoring form and the proportion of matches in which both teams scored give a slight edge to the BTTS - Yes scenario.

In their last 5 matches, Dundalk averaged 1.0 goals scored but conceded 2.4, while Shamrock Rovers scored 2.4 goals per game. During this period, the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 80% of matches involving either team, indicating an elevated scoring potential. This signal is supported by xG figures of 1.47 for Dundalk’s attack and 1.70 for Shamrock Rovers’ attack over their last 5 matches. Caution on higher lines is warranted, as the visitors’ matches went over 2.5 goals in only 41% of cases across the full season, and over 3.5 goals in 24%. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick: its season hit rate is 78% in the hosts’ matches and 71% in the visitors’ matches, while current form further points to at least two goals.

Dundalk lead at the break in 72% of their home matches, while Shamrock Rovers trail at half-time in 47% of their away games, giving the home side a strong basis for leading after 45 minutes. Before the break, Dundalk score an average of 1.22 goals at home, while the visitors concede 0.82 goals on average away from home. Across full matches, the hosts win 78% of their home games and score an average of 2.06 goals, compared with Shamrock Rovers’ 35% away win rate. Recent form clearly weakens this pick: over their last five matches, Dundalk have averaged 0.2 points, while their opponents have averaged 2.4 points and led at the break three times. Nevertheless, Dundalk’s advantage in the home-ground data makes a home lead both at half-time and at full-time the most likely single scenario in the HT/FT market.