Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.: match statistics

Dundalk have clear attacking potential at home: they average 1.91 xG, 17.14 shots per match and 1.64 goals, while St Patrick's score an average of 1.14 goals away from home. The hosts have scored in every home fixture, whereas the visitors have failed to find the net in 43% of their away matches. However, St Patrick's are in better recent form, collecting 10 points from their last five matches compared with Dundalk’s 6, and have conceded just 25 goals across the season, compared with 45 for their opponents. Dundalk’s defence remains vulnerable to mistakes, conceding 1.29 goals per home match and allowing 11 goals in their last five games. Home advantage and the superior quality of chances created slightly favour the hosts, but a closely contested match is highly likely.

Recent form clearly favors goals from both sides: Dundalk recorded BTTS - Yes in 80% of their last 5 matches, while St Patrick's Athl. did so in 60%. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 3.2 goals but conceded 2.2, significantly increasing the visitors' chances of finding the net. St Patrick's Athl. have recently scored 1.6 goals per match, while their average xG of 1.47 against Dundalk's 1.01 xG conceded points to genuine attacking potential. Dundalk should also create plenty of chances, averaging 2.17 xG and 6.8 shots on target per match, while their opponents keep a clean sheet in only 29% of games. Seasonal BTTS figures are lower, at 40% and 43% respectively, but the attacking numbers from recent matches support a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Dundalk have strong attacking potential at home: they score an average of 1.93 goals, generate 2.17 xG, and register 6.8 shots on target per match. The visitors average 1.14 goals, while Dundalk’s defense concedes only 0.67 goals per home game, limiting the likelihood of a very high-scoring outcome. Historically, 67% of Dundalk’s matches and as many as 79% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches have ended with Under 3.5 goals, while the league records this goal level at an average of 2.75 goals per match. The hosts’ recent form has been more open, with an average of 5.4 goals scored in their last five games, but their opponents conceded only 1.2 goals per match over the same period. The strongest option remains Under 3.5, as the data supports a 2-3 goal range but does not point as strongly to a scenario with at least four goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Dundalk victory, as both teams often start cautiously: the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their matches, while St Patrick's recorded a half-time draw in 36%. Dundalk, however, have a clear advantage after the interval, averaging 1.13 goals scored and conceding just 0.27, whereas the visitors score only 0.50 goals during that period. Over the season as a whole, the hosts have won 60% of their matches, scoring 1.93 goals per game and averaging 6.8 shots on target, compared with 1.14 goals and 4.29 shots on target for St Patrick's. Dundalk's edge is also supported by an xG of 2.17 versus 1.66 for their opponents, although the visitors' recent form, with a 60% win rate across their last five matches, reduces confidence in a scenario where the hosts take an early lead.