Dunfermline Athletic vs Queen's Park: match statistics

Dunfermline Athletic remain unbeaten at home, winning 50% of their matches and drawing the remaining 50%, while Queen's Park are yet to record an away victory. The hosts average 1 goal per home game with an xG of 1.49, whereas the visitors have failed to score in away matches, finding the net in 0% of such games. Dunfermline's superiority is also evident in chance creation, averaging 5 shots on target per match compared with Queen's Park's 2. The hosts' defence restricts opponents to an xG of 0.79 and concedes 0.5 goals per game, while the visitors allow their opponents as much as 2.59 xG. Neither team's recent form has been particularly strong, but Queen's Park have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and scored just 3 goals in that run, further supporting the case for a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Queen’s Park have yet to score away from home and have failed to find the net in 100% of such matches. The visitors also create few chances: their average xG is just 0.82, they manage 2 shots on target per game, and have averaged 0.6 goals across their last five appearances. Dunfermline conceded an average of 1.67 goals at home, but their current defensive form looks stronger, with average xG conceded at 0.96 over their last five matches. The hosts should have a good chance of scoring against a Queen’s Park defence allowing 2.59 xG away from home, but the visitors’ low attacking potential increases the likelihood that at least one team will fail to score. This is also supported by the league BTTS rate of just 36%.

Dunfermline have averaged just 0.8 goals scored over their last five matches, while Queen's Park have averaged 0.6, limiting both sides' underlying attacking potential. The visitors have failed to score in any of their away matches, while the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their home games, making a single Queen's Park goal more realistic than a high-scoring output. Dunfermline's last five matches produced an average of 2.0 total goals, identical to Queen's Park's last five fixtures; only 20% and 40% of those respective sequences went Over 2.5 goals. Although the hosts' xG stands at 1.21 and Queen's Park have conceded an average of 2.59 xG away from home, the poor finishing of both attacks points towards a total below four goals. The Under 3.5 line receives additional support from the fact that both teams have stayed below this threshold in all of their league matches so far.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: in their last five matches, both teams were level after 45 minutes in 80% of cases, while each averaged just 0.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in the first half. Queen’s Park have yet to score away from home, kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, and have drawn at half-time in all of their appearances so far. Dunfermline possess greater attacking potential, with an xG of 1.21 compared with their opponents’ 0.82 and an average of 5 shots on target against the visitors’ 2; however, the hosts score only 1.0 goal per home match. After the interval, both teams are more frequently involved in goals, but their recent results are similar: each has averaged 1.0 point per match across their last five outings, with draws accounting for 40% of second halves. The X/X scenario is therefore the most likely, although the home advantage makes a half-time draw followed by a home win the main alternative.