Dungannon Swifts vs Coleraine: match statistics

Coleraine have scored 9 goals in their last five matches, one more than Dungannon Swifts, while conceding 12 compared with their opponents’ 16. The visitors have collected 7 points during this period, thanks to 2 wins and a draw, whereas the hosts have earned 6 points after losing 3 of their 5 matches. Dungannon are conceding as many as 3.2 goals per game on average in their current run, which significantly boosts Coleraine’s chances of capitalising on their attacking efficiency. The visitors’ defence is also far from solid, allowing opponents to score 2.4 goals per match, so the hosts should create opportunities to find the net. The slightly better points tally, the more favourable goal difference over the last five matches and Dungannon’s defensive weakness all point towards a Coleraine win.

Recent form clearly supports goals at both ends: Dungannon Swifts had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Coleraine recorded it in 40%. The hosts averaged 1.6 goals scored during this period, while Coleraine conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match, giving Dungannon a strong foundation to find the net. The visitors averaged 1.8 goals scored, while Dungannon’s defence allowed an average of 3.2 goals, making a Coleraine goal highly likely as well. The attacking potential is confirmed by xG figures of 1.27 for the hosts and 1.36 for the visitors, alongside a high opponents’ xG against Dungannon of 1.61. Despite Coleraine’s lower BTTS rate, the weakness of both defences and their regular goal-scoring records point towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

The available data from the last 5 matches points to very open games: Dungannon averaged 1.6 goals scored but conceded as many as 3.2, while Coleraine scored 1.8 and allowed opponents to score 2.4 goals. The 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 100% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 80% of the visitors’ games. At the same time, the chance-quality metrics are more moderate, with average attacking xG of 1.27 for Dungannon and 1.36 for Coleraine, which supports a projected total of 2.95 goals rather than expecting an extremely high-scoring game. Over 1.5 offers the strongest edge, as both teams’ poor recent defensive performances significantly increase the likelihood of at least two goals, without needing to rely on the more volatile 2.5 line.

The strongest signal points to Coleraine leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage through to the final whistle, as Dungannon were trailing at the break in 60% of their last five matches. Coleraine led at half-time in 40% of their five most recent appearances, while the hosts scored only 0.4 goals before the interval and conceded 1.4. The visitors also appear stronger over the full match: they averaged 1.8 goals scored, whereas Dungannon conceded as many as 3.2 goals per game. However, the hosts have a better points return after the break, 1.4 compared with Coleraine’s 1.0, so the possibility of reducing the deficit or securing a draw remains relevant. Despite this, Dungannon’s poor first-half performance and their negative half-time goal difference of -5 make 2/2 the most likely single scenario.