Džiugas Telšiai vs Sūduva: match statistics

Sūduva arrive in significantly better current form: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, winning 4 and drawing 1, with a 12:4 goal difference. Over the same period, Džiugas Telšiai picked up 8 points and scored just 6 goals, although their defence also conceded only 5. The visitors create more high-quality chances away from home, averaging 1.44 xG compared with the hosts’ 1.20, and also register more shots on target per match: 5.09 versus 3.31. Džiugas’ home advantage is significant, as the hosts win 54% of such matches and keep a clean sheet in 54% of them, but Sūduva have lost only 3 of their 23 league matches across the entire season. Similar scoring averages at home and away—1.46 and 1.45 goals respectively—increase the likelihood of a draw; however, Sūduva’s current efficiency and attacking edge slightly favour the visitors.

The “No” pick is primarily supported by Džiugas Telšiai’s highly solid defense, conceding just 0.50 goals per match on average and keeping a clean sheet in 58% of their games. Sūduva do average 1.45 goals, and as many as 2.4 across their last five matches, but their xG over that period is only 1.29, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.00. Džiugas are also not guaranteed to score themselves: BTTS occurred in only 42% of their matches, while the team failed to score in 33% of games this season. Sūduva have a higher seasonal BTTS rate of 64%, but their defense has conceded just 0.8 goals per match over the last five league fixtures and allowed opponents an xG of 0.94. As a result, the most likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as 75% of Džiugas Telšiai’s matches and as many as 91% of Sūduva’s matches have finished below this line. The hosts concede just 0.50 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 58% of their appearances, limiting the opponent’s attacking potential despite their average of 1.45 goals scored. Both teams create chances of a similar quality, with average xG figures of 1.47 for Džiugas and 1.44 for Sūduva, but their last five matches point to lower-quality chances: 1.18 and 1.29 xG, respectively. Sūduva have scored 12 goals in their last five matches, while Džiugas have managed only 6, and the projected total of 2.40 goals remains clearly below the four-goal line.

A draw at half-time is a realistic scenario, as Džiugas were level after 45 minutes in 8 of their 12 home matches, or 67% of the time, while their average first-half goal tally is just 0.75. Sūduva are clearly the stronger side based on their current form, however, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding just 0.8. The visitors tend to start matches well, holding a lead at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, but Džiugas’ solid defence, which has conceded just 0.17 goals before half-time this season, increases the likelihood of a level score after the first half. After the break, Sūduva’s form advantage should become more apparent, as they average 1.2 goals in the second halves of their last five matches, compared with just 0.4 for the hosts. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and a Sūduva win at full-time (X/2).