Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg: match statistics

Augsburg sit 2nd in the table, while Eintracht Frankfurt are 10th, and the visitors made the stronger start to the season: they won their match 3:0, whereas the hosts drew 3:3. In their last five matches, Augsburg have recorded 4 wins and scored 23 goals—an average of 4.6 per game—while conceding just 6. Frankfurt have also been highly effective in front of goal, scoring 21 times in five appearances, but their defence has conceded 11 goals during that period, almost twice as many as their opponents. The visitors averaged 2.4 points per game in their recent run, compared with Frankfurt’s 2.0, and this, combined with their clearly stronger defensive record, points to a narrow away win. However, the hosts possess significant attacking potential, so the risk of a draw or both teams scoring remains considerable.

Data from the last five matches points to very high attacking output: Eintracht averaged 4.2 goals, while Augsburg averaged 4.6. Both teams also created plenty of high-quality chances, recording average xG figures of 2.31 and 2.10 respectively, while conceding 2.2 and 1.2 goals per match. Augsburg kept a clean sheet only in the seasonal data, which is based on a limited sample, whereas Frankfurt allowed opponents 1.09 xG in their last five matches, giving the visitors a realistic route to scoring. The BTTS signal is not conclusive, however, as both teams’ BTTS - Yes rates over their last five matches stand at just 40% and 20%, compared with the league average of 56%. The edge in current attacking strength and high xG values marginally favours a scenario in which both sides score.

In their last five matches, both teams have been involved in very high-scoring games: Frankfurt averaged 4.2 total goals, while Augsburg averaged 4.6. During this period, Frankfurt scored 21 goals and conceded 11, whereas Augsburg scored 23 and conceded just 6. The quality of chances created also points to an open game, with average xG of 2.31 for the hosts and 2.10 for the visitors, alongside xG conceded of 1.09 and 1.30, respectively. The Over 2.5 goals line landed in 80% of the last five appearances for each team, while the league-wide average is a high 3.89 goals per match. However, the strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as even after regressing from the teams' exceptionally high recent finishing efficiency, the projected total of 3.40 goals gives this line a clear edge.

Eintracht Frankfurt led at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while Augsburg achieved this in only 40% of their games. The hosts averaged 3.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded before half-time, clearly outperforming Augsburg’s figures of 2.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. In the current match data, Frankfurt won their only previous fixture 3–0 after leading 1–0 at half-time, with a very high xG of 2.79 from 24 shots. However, the hosts have recently conceded an average of 1.4 goals after the break, creating a risk that their advantage could be reduced. Nevertheless, home advantage and a more effective start support the expectation that they will maintain their lead. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore 1/1: Frankfurt to lead at half-time and win the match.