Encarnación vs Tacuary: match statistics

Both teams have a 9% win rate at home and away, respectively, while Tacuary draws in as many as 55% of its away matches, which significantly strengthens the case for a share of the points. Encarnación are in poorer form, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches and scored just 4 goals during that run, whereas Tacuary conceded only 6 goals over the same period. However, the hosts create more high-quality chances on home soil, averaging 1.43 xG compared with Tacuary’s 1.12 away from home, and also record 52% possession. Encarnación’s main issue remains their defence: they concede an average of 2.00 goals per match at home and keep a clean sheet in only 9% of their games. Tacuary average 1.18 goals scored away from home and have a 16% shot conversion rate compared with the hosts’ 9%, so they should be capable of responding to the home side’s edge in chance creation.

Tacuary has a high seasonal BTTS rate of 73%, while Encarnación stands at just 50%, and in their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of games. The strongest argument against both sides scoring is their current finishing form: the hosts have averaged just 0.8 goals recently, while the visitors have managed only 0.6. Encarnación have failed to score in 40% of their league matches, whereas Tacuary have kept a clean sheet in only 18%, giving the hosts a chance to find the net but not enough to offset the visitors’ poor attacking form. The five-match average xG figures are 1.06 for Encarnación and 1.43 for Tacuary; however, with both teams scoring just 7 goals combined during this period, it is more likely that at least one side will fail to score. Therefore, the stronger selection is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score. This does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The match profile points to a moderate number of chances: Encarnación’s average xG is 1.40, while Tacuary allows opponents 1.47 xG. The visitors create an average of 1.12 xG, with the hosts conceding 1.44 xG. However, both teams have struggled with finishing in their last five matches, scoring only 0.8 and 0.6 goals per game, respectively. The 2.5-goal line is ambiguous, as it was surpassed in 40% of Encarnación’s last five matches but in only 20% of Tacuary’s games. At the same time, neither team regularly scores many goals: the hosts scored at least 3 goals in only 10% of their matches this season, while the visitors have not done so at all. Therefore, the strongest option is Under 3.5 goals, supported by a projected total of 2.40 goals and the limited attacking potential of both sides.

The strongest scenario is a draw both at half-time and at full-time, as Tacuary were level at the break in 64% of their matches and drew as many as 55% of their games overall. Encarnación also frequently start without a decisive result, recording a half-time draw in 50% of their appearances, while the two teams average only 0.50 and 0.55 goals per match before the break, respectively. In their last five matches, Tacuary went into half-time level on every occasion, whereas the hosts led at the break only once. Encarnación’s advantage in chance creation is moderate, with average xG of 1.40 compared with 1.12, but the hosts have lost four of their last five matches and scored just 0.8 goals per game during that period. Tacuary concede an average of 1.82 goals away from home, which keeps open the possibility of a later home turnaround, but both teams’ strong tendency to draw primarily supports the X/X outcome.