Estudiantes Mérida vs UCV: match statistics

Estudiantes Mérida have shown significantly more stable form: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, with 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, while UCV have lost 4 of their last 5 games and collected only 3 points. The hosts win 50% of their home matches, whereas the visitors lose as many as 54% of their away games and have a -5 goal difference. Estudiantes create chances worth an average home xG of 1.38, higher than UCV’s away xG of 1.25, and also enjoy more possession (54% versus 50%). UCV’s defensive performance is a major concern, as they concede an average of 1.77 goals away from home and allow chances worth 1.46 xG, while the hosts concede 1.25 goals at home. The visitors have failed to score in 38% of their away matches, and after scoring just 3 goals in their last five games, their attack provides little evidence that they can halt Estudiantes’ favourable trend.

Seasonally, Estudiantes Mérida have a high BTTS rate of 73%, while UCV stand at 54% and the league average is 52%. Recent form clearly weakens the case for both teams to score: in their last 5 matches, BTTS landed in only 40% of games for the two teams combined, with UCV scoring just 0.6 goals per match. The visitors have failed to score in 38% of their matches this season, while Estudiantes have kept a clean sheet in only 9% of home games, making a home win to nil the most realistic No Goal scenario. Estudiantes create more shots on target, averaging 5.09 compared with UCV’s 3.77, while the visitors’ defence concedes an average of 1.77 goals, strengthening the hosts’ chances of scoring without requiring a response from their opponents. Therefore, BTTS - No is marginally the stronger pick, mainly due to UCV’s poor current attacking efficiency.

Estudiantes Mérida average 1.55 goals per match, while UCV concede 1.77, giving the hosts clear potential to score. At the same time, UCV have scored just 3 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.6 per game, while Estudiantes conceded 1.2 goals over the same period. Historically, meetings involving both teams have rarely exceeded the 3.5-goal line: this occurred in 27% of the hosts’ matches and 23% of the visitors’ matches. The league average is also 2.50 goals, while the 2.45 projection points more towards a result in the 1–3-goal range than an open, high-scoring game. Therefore, Under 3.5 offers the greatest edge, supported by a 75% probability and UCV’s weaker recent attacking output.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Estudiantes Mérida win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 55% of their matches, while UCV were trailing at that stage in 46%. In their last five matches, UCV went into the break behind 80% of the time, scoring just 0.2 goals before half-time and conceding 1.2. Estudiantes have shown greater potential after the interval: they average 0.91 goals scored and only 0.45 conceded in the second half, compared with UCV’s 0.62 scored and 0.77 conceded. The hosts’ advantage is also evident across the season, with 1.64 points per match compared with UCV’s 1.08, while the visitors have lost 54% of their matches. The hosts create more high-quality chances, recording an xG of 1.48 versus 1.25 and averaging 5.09 shots on target compared with 3.77, which supports the expectation that a closely contested first half will be decided after the break.