Etar vs Fratria: match statistics

Fratria sit 3rd in the table and have lost just 1 of their 11 matches, while 12th-placed Etar have suffered 4 defeats in 10 games. The visitors are also in clearly better form: they have scored 11 goals and conceded 4 in their last 5 matches, compared with 8 scored and as many as 14 conceded by the hosts. Etar’s home advantage remains a factor: they win 50% of their home matches and average 1.82 xG, compared with Fratria’s 1.30 xG away from home. Even so, the visitors concede an average of 1.00 goal per away match, fewer than Etar do at home (1.33), giving them a slight edge when combined with their current form. A draw is still a realistic outcome, however, as 60% of Fratria’s away matches have ended level.

Although Etar keep a clean sheet in 67% of their home matches, they have conceded an average of 2.8 goals across their last 5 games, increasing Fratria’s chances of scoring. The visitors average 1.6 goals on the road and have scored in every away match. Etar also have a solid case for finding the net: they average 1.5 goals at home and post an xG of 1.55, while Fratria concede an average of 1.0 goals away. The signals are mixed, as BTTS - Yes has landed in just 17% of Etar’s home matches but in 80% of Fratria’s away fixtures; moreover, the rates across the teams’ last 5 matches were 80% and 60%, respectively. Recent scoring form and the visitors’ reliability in front of goal point towards BTTS - Yes, although Etar’s strong home defensive record limits the strength of that case.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals: this line was cleared in 100% of Fratria’s matches, while at least three goals were scored in 80% of each team’s last five games. Etar average 1.5 goals at home, while Fratria score 1.6 and concede 1.0 away, supporting a forecast of 2.66 goals in total. However, caution on higher lines is warranted: only 33% of Etar’s home matches went Over 2.5 goals, compared with 40% of Fratria’s away matches. Therefore, Over 1.5 is a stronger pick than Over 2.5: it capitalizes on both teams’ attacking form without requiring three goals.

The strongest indication that Fratria will lead at the break comes from their form over the last five matches: the visitors were ahead at half-time in three, while Etar were trailing at the break in three of their five. Over this period, Fratria averaged 1.2 goals before half-time compared with Etar’s 0.6, while Etar conceded an average of 1.4 goals in the first half. Their recent records over the last five matches also favour Fratria holding on to the lead: they recorded three wins and two draws, while Etar won twice and lost three times. However, the 2/2 HT/FT pick is not clear-cut, as Etar won 67% of their home matches and conceded just 0.5 goals per game on average, while Fratria drew 60% of their away matches.