Ethiopia Bunna vs Fasil Ketema: match statistics
Ethiopia Bunna vs Fasil Ketema: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ethiopia Bunna played Fasil Ketema in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 20 May 2026. Venue: Addis Ababa Stadium. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Ethiopia Bunna: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Fasil Ketema: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ethiopia Bunna scores 1.06 and concedes 1.09 goals per match. Fasil Ketema scores 0.72 and concedes 0.75. League average: 1.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ethiopia Bunna 50%, Fasil Ketema 28%. Over 2.5: Ethiopia Bunna 34%, Fasil Ketema 19%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
xG, shots and style
Ethiopia Bunna has higher xG: 1.21 vs 1.13. Ethiopia Bunna: 7.3 shots per match, Fasil Ketema: 7.0.
Match halves
Ethiopia Bunna: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.44. Fasil Ketema: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.44.
Goals by minute
Ethiopia Bunna: 0-15 (7 goals). Fasil Ketema: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.79 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I project a draw as the most likely outcome, because Fasil Ketema records as many as 56% draws away and maintains 63% clean sheets, which increases the likelihood of a shared result. Ethiopia Bunna have the home offensive edge – scoring 1.19 goals per match, registering 3.0 on-target shots and a 15% conversion rate from 8.13 average shots, while Fasil away score only 0.69 goals with 2.33 on-target shots and 9% conversion. xG values are similar (home xG 1.26 vs away xG 1.17), but xG against shows a defensive advantage for the visitors (1.31 for the hosts vs 1.10 for Fasil), and 50% of away matches with no goals scored by the visitors favors low totals. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 6 and conceded 7 (avg 1.2–1.4), while the visitors have scored 4 and conceded 9 (0.8–1.8); Ethiopia Bunna have 1.0 point per match in the last 5, Fasil 0.8, indicating poor form for both sides. Therefore I assign approximately 45% probability to a draw, 35% to a home win (attacking edge: 1.19 goals and 15% conversion) and 20% to an away win (strong defence: 0.69 goals conceded and 63% clean sheets).
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams register low BTTS rates this season: Ethiopia Bunna 25% and Fasil Ketema 31%, averaging around a 28% chance of Goal/Goal, versus a league BTTS of 41% and a very high league clean sheet rate of 79%. Seasonal goal averages are 0.75 scored and 0.81 conceded for the home side, and 0.69/0.69 for the away side, while xG is 1.10 for the home team and 1.17 for the visitors, indicating a moderate number of chances with relatively low finishing efficiency (conversion 11% vs 9%). The last 5 matches present mixed signals: hosts have BTTS 60% (6 scored, 7 conceded in 5 games), visitors 40% (4 scored, 9 conceded), but this short-term increase for the hosts does not offset the season-long trends. Additionally, only 19% of matches between the two sides exceed 2.5 goals and seasonal clean sheets are 50% (home) and 63% (away), so the stronger signal is No Goal. I recommend BTTS - No (72% vs 28%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Seasonal averages show Ethiopia Bunna scores 0.75 and concedes 0.81, while Fasil Ketema scores 0.69 and concedes 0.69, yielding a low combined average of 1.44 goals per match. xG indicates higher potential: 1.10 xG for the home side and 1.17 xG for the visitors (total 2.27), but the large gap between xG and actual goals and the high rate of clean sheets (50% and 63%) and low BTTS (25% and 31%) suggest many matches finish low-scoring. In the last 5 matches the home team scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and the visitors 4 goals (0.8 avg), raising the short-term combined average to ~2.0, yet the season frequency of Over 2.5 is only 19% for both teams. Considering the contrasting xG signal (2.27) and the teams’ real behavior (high CS and low BTTS), I adopt a compromise expected goals of 1.05 for the home side and 0.90 for the visitors (total 1.95) and recommend Under at the 2.5 line (Under ~80% vs Over ~20%), with a moderate lean to Under at 1.5 (58%/42%) and a strong Under at 3.5 (88%/12%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time a draw is most likely: home teams were level at the break in 75% of matches, away teams in 81% (approximately 78% on average), and both teams have 88% clean halves and low average goals at the break (home 0.38, away 0.19), which strongly points to a 0-0/draw HT. After the break the home side has the advantage – they won 44% of matches versus 25% for away teams, and the average points gained after half-time are 1.25 for hosts vs 1.06 for guests; hosts win the second half in 31% of cases compared to 13% for visitors. The game structure is balanced in chance creation (xG 1.10 for homes vs 1.17 for aways and on average 7.13 vs 7.47 shots), but the home team has higher finishing efficiency (11% vs 9%), giving them the edge in converting chances into goals. Additionally, 69% of home matches record at least one goal in the second half versus 50% for away matches, so the most logical scenario is a draw at the break with a turnaround in favor of the home team after half-time. For these reasons I pick X/1 as the strongest signal and assign it the highest probability (40%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ethiopia Bunna | Fasil Ketema | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ethiopia Bunna is 25% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 0.8 pts / match - Fasil Ketema
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ethiopia Bunna is 47% better for: goals scored per match.
1.06 goals / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 0.72 goals / match - Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema is 45% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.09 goals / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 0.75 goals / match - Fasil Ketema
Ethiopia Bunna scores in 72% of matches (23 of 32 matches), while Fasil Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 56% (18 of 32 matches).
Fasil Ketema scores in 56% of matches (18 of 32 matches), while Ethiopia Bunna keeps a clean sheet in 31% (10 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ethiopia Bunna
Over / Under - Fasil Ketema
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ethiopia Bunna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Fasil Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ethiopia Bunna
Fasil Ketema
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Ethiopia Bunna | Liga | Fasil Ketema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.16 | 1.79 | ▼ 1.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 41% | ▼ 28% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 34% | 27% | ▼ 19% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 31% | 40% | ▲ 56% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 69% | 54% | ▼ 28% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 69% | 60% | • 59% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Ethiopia BunnaGoalAbubakar Adamu
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ethiopia Bunna 1 - 0 - 0 Fasil Ketema. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ethiopia Bunna vs Fasil Ketema?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Ethiopia Bunna 2:1 Fasil Ketema. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ethiopia Bunna vs Fasil Ketema?
Ethiopia Bunna score 1.06 goals per game on average and Fasil Ketema 0.72. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Ethiopia Bunna's matches and 28% of Fasil Ketema's.
What form are Ethiopia Bunna and Fasil Ketema in?
Over the last 5 games Ethiopia Bunna have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Fasil Ketema 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ethiopia Bunna vs Fasil Ketema?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.