Ethiopia Bunna vs Mekelakeya: match statistics
Ethiopia Bunna vs Mekelakeya: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ethiopia Bunna played Mekelakeya in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Ethiopia Bunna: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Mekelakeya: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ethiopia Bunna scores 1.10 and concedes 1.10 goals per match. Mekelakeya scores 1.19 and concedes 0.77. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ethiopia Bunna 50%, Mekelakeya 42%. Over 2.5: Ethiopia Bunna 37%, Mekelakeya 29%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
xG, shots and style
Mekelakeya has higher xG: 1.29 vs 1.20. Ethiopia Bunna: 7.1 shots per match, Mekelakeya: 8.4.
Match halves
Ethiopia Bunna: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.47. Mekelakeya: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.42.
Goals by minute
Ethiopia Bunna: 0-15 (7 goals). Mekelakeya: 31-45+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back an away win for Mekelakeya: they sit 3rd in the table versus the hosts’ 7th position and over the last 5 matches have a record of 3 wins and 2 draws (0 losses), while Ethiopia Bunna have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. Defensively Mekelakeya hold a clear edge — the visitors conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 matches versus 8 conceded by the hosts; on the season they have 24 goals conceded vs 33 for Ethiopia Bunna, and their away goals-against average is 1.0 compared to the hosts’ 1.4. In attack Mekelakeya also have the advantage: away they score 1.67 goals on average with an average xG of 1.30, 9.0 shots per match and a conversion rate of 19%, whereas the home side record 1.20 goals per game, xG 1.27, 8.13 shots and 15% conversion. Additionally Mekelakeya have a higher away win rate (53% vs the hosts’ 33% home win rate), fewer losses (13% vs 47%), and more clean sheets (40% vs 20%); over the last 5 fixtures they average 2.2 points vs Ethiopia Bunna’s 1.2. The only minor weakness for the visitors is slightly lower average shots on target (3.07 vs 3.13), which gives the hosts a small chance of holding a draw, but overall the data (e.g. away goal difference +10 vs -3 for the hosts) favor Mekelakeya.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
xG analysis shows offensive balance: Ethiopia Bunna has xG 1.28, Mekelakeya 1.30, and in the last 5 matches xG is 1.47 (home) and 1.34 (away) respectively, indicating both teams generate above 1.2 xG per game. Mekelakeya scores on average 1.67 goals this season and has a shot conversion rate of 19%, while Ethiopia Bunna concedes on average 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches, increasing the chance of an away goal. Additionally, in the last 5 fixtures the home side’s BTTS rate is 80% versus 40% for the visitors, so the home form favors Goal/Goal outcomes. However, season-long home stats for the hosts show 53% clean sheets at home and a seasonal BTTS of only 33%, and the league has BTTS 41% with 79% matches ending in clean sheets, which argues against BTTS. As a result I assign BTTS 55% vs 45% No Goal and recommend the 'BTTS - Yes' tip as the strongest signal based on xG and the last 5 rounds.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I expect total xG of 2.25 (home xG 1.15 vs away xG 1.10), which by itself favors Over 1.5. Mekelakeya scores on average 1.67 goals per season versus Ethiopia Bunna 0.67, while both teams have similar xG: 1.30 (away) and 1.28 (home), indicating genuine scoring potential. The away side has a much higher shooting efficiency at 19% versus the home side’s 8% and records Over 1.5 in 80% of matches this season (home 40%), increasing the likelihood of at least 2 goals. In the last 5 matches the home team scored 8 goals (1.6 avg) and conceded 8, and home matches have seen Over 2.5 in 60% of the last 5 appearances, so Over 2.5 is possible but less certain (~43%). Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (≈70% probability), while Over 2.5 (≈43%) and Over 3.5 (≈22%) are riskier.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The dominant signal is an away lead at the break and an away victory: Mekelakeya led at half-time in 9 of 15 away matches (60%) and averaged 1.13 goals by half-time, while Ethiopia Bunna averaged only 0.33 goals by half-time and led at the break in just 2 of 15 fixtures (13%). The visitors also have a higher win rate (53% vs 20% for the hosts) and a markedly better finishing rate (19% vs 8%), with similar xG (1.30 vs 1.28), indicating greater efficiency from Mekelakeya. The first-half differential is confirmed by half-time goals 24 vs 8 and average goals by half 1.6 (away) versus 0.53 (home), which increases the likelihood of the visitors leading after 45 minutes and maintaining the win. The hosts, however, draw at half-time in 73% of cases, so half-time draw alternatives (X/2 18% and X/X 14%) are possible; ultimately I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 scenario (42%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ethiopia Bunna | Mekelakeya | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mekelakeya is 83% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 2.2 pts / match - Mekelakeya
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mekelakeya is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.1 goals / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 1.19 goals / match - Mekelakeya
Mekelakeya is 43% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.1 goals / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 0.77 goals / match - Mekelakeya
Ethiopia Bunna scores in 73% of matches (22 of 30 matches), while Mekelakeya keeps a clean sheet in 48% (15 of 31 matches).
Mekelakeya scores in 68% of matches (21 of 31 matches), while Ethiopia Bunna keeps a clean sheet in 33% (10 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ethiopia Bunna
Over / Under - Mekelakeya
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mekelakeya is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.37 pts / match - Ethiopia Bunna · 1.61 pts / match - Mekelakeya
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ethiopia Bunna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mekelakeya - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ethiopia Bunna
Mekelakeya
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Ethiopia Bunna | Liga | Mekelakeya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.20 | 1.78 | ▲ 1.97 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 50% | 41% | • 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 37% | 27% | ▲ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 33% | 40% | ▲ 48% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 54% | • 55% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 73% | 59% | ▼ 52% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- MekelakeyaGoalBruk Markos
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ethiopia Bunna 1 - 0 - 0 Mekelakeya. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ethiopia Bunna vs Mekelakeya?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Ethiopia Bunna 1:1 Mekelakeya. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ethiopia Bunna vs Mekelakeya?
Ethiopia Bunna score 1.10 goals per game on average and Mekelakeya 1.19. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Ethiopia Bunna's matches and 42% of Mekelakeya's.
What form are Ethiopia Bunna and Mekelakeya in?
Over the last 5 games Ethiopia Bunna have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Mekelakeya 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ethiopia Bunna vs Mekelakeya?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ethiopia Bunna vs Mekelakeya: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.