Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank: match statistics
Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ethiopian Medhin played Ethiopia Nigd Bank in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 11 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Ethiopian Medhin: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. Ethiopia Nigd Bank: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ethiopian Medhin scores 0.83 and concedes 0.79 goals per match. Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores 1.23 and concedes 1.17. League average: 1.79 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ethiopian Medhin 45%, Ethiopia Nigd Bank 57%. Over 2.5: Ethiopian Medhin 24%, Ethiopia Nigd Bank 43%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
xG, shots and style
Ethiopian Medhin has higher xG: 1.29 vs 1.15. Ethiopian Medhin: 7.9 shots per match, Ethiopia Nigd Bank: 6.4.
Match halves
Ethiopian Medhin: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.31. Ethiopia Nigd Bank: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.77.
Goals by minute
Ethiopian Medhin: 76-90+ (7 goals). Ethiopia Nigd Bank: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.79 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 27%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a draw (X): the home side draw 50% of matches at home, while the away side draw 53% on the road, with low win rates of 14% for homes at home and 13% for guests away. The hosts have a defensive edge — they concede only 0.71 goals per game at home and record 29% clean sheets, whereas the visitors concede 1.27 goals away and have 20% clean sheets. Offensively both teams are limited: the hosts score 0.64 goals at home with an xG of 1.28 (indicating poor chance conversion), while the visitors score 0.93 goals away with an xG of 1.08 but are more efficient (shot conversion 16% vs 8% for the hosts) and are less likely to be shut out — share of matches without a goal is 27% for visitors vs 57% for hosts. In the last 5 matches the hosts average 1.8 points per game with a goal difference of 6:4, and the visitors average 1.4 points per game with a goal difference of 5:3, giving a slight form advantage to the hosts. Considering the hosts' lower average goals conceded and the very frequent draws on both sides, I assess probabilities as: Draw 48%, Home win 30%, Away win 22%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Looking at season-long metrics, the stronger signal for BTTS is that the away team has a season percentage of matches with both teams scoring at 67%, while the home team sits at 47%; the average of these values is 57%, which fundamentally favors the 'BTTS - Yes' option. This is supported by xG figures: the home side has an attacking xG of 1.22 versus the away xG conceded of 1.29 (home should therefore create ~1.2 opportunities against the visitors' defense), while the away team has attacking xG 1.08 versus xG conceded to the home side 1.11 — both sides therefore have expected goal output close to 1. The counterargument is the away form over the last 5 matches — BTTS 0% with averages of 1.0 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, which suggests the visitors have recently tended to prevent both teams from scoring and this lowers BTTS probability. The home team in their last 5 have BTTS 80% with averages of 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, additionally registering more shots on target (3.14 vs 2.4) and higher conversion rate (19% vs 16%), which increases the chance that at least they will score. In summary, weighing a season average BTTS around 57%, xG close to 1 for both sides, and the conflicting last-5 signals (80% vs 0%), I assign higher probability to 'Yes' — 60% vs 40% for 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG for both teams is 2.30 (1.22 for Ethiopian Medhin and 1.08 for Ethiopia Nigd Bank), while season goals-per-game averages are 1.53 vs 0.93 (total 2.46), indicating a realistic potential for at least two goals. The percentage of matches over 1.5 goals is 80% for the home side and 73% for the away side (average ~76%), therefore OVER 1.5 stands out as the strongest signal (I rate it 77%). The chance of OVER 2.5 is moderate: season rates are 47% for hosts and 40% for visitors (average ~44%), and the combined xG of 2.30 is slightly below the 2.5 threshold, so UNDER 2.5 has the edge. For the 3.5 line, OVER shares are low (27% hosts, 20% guests, average ~24%), and shots on target of 3.14 vs 2.40 with conversion rates of 19%/16% do not suggest heavy goal pressure, so UNDER 3.5 is the dominant option. Consequently, I recommend backing OVER 1.5 with expected goals 1.22 for the home team and 1.08 for the away team (total 2.30), because the combination of xG and seasonal >1.5 shares provides the strongest statistical argument.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Ethiopian Medhin has a clear offensive and home advantage: they average 1.53 goals per match compared to 0.93 for Ethiopia Nigd Bank, with xG 1.22 vs 1.08 and 3.14 shots on target vs 2.4. The hosts led at the break in 6 matches (40%) while the visitors did so in only 1 (7%), and halftime goals average 0.6 for Medhin vs 0.33 for Nigd Bank, which favors a lead at the break for the home side. Over the full match this superiority is confirmed by a home win rate of 47% versus 13% away wins for the visitors, and the hosts scored 6 goals in minutes 46–60 compared to 1 for the visitors, so they are dangerous immediately after the break. Although the percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 47% for the hosts and 67% for the visitors, the hosts’ higher efficiency (conversion 19% vs 16%) and advantage in shots on target argue for maintaining the lead and winning, hence the selection of 1/1 as the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ethiopian Medhin | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.47 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ethiopian Medhin is 29% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Ethiopian Medhin · 1.4 pts / match - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ethiopia Nigd Bank is 48% better for: goals scored per match.
0.83 goals / match - Ethiopian Medhin · 1.23 goals / match - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopian Medhin is 48% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.79 goals / match - Ethiopian Medhin · 1.17 goals / match - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopian Medhin scores in 55% of matches (16 of 29 matches), while Ethiopia Nigd Bank keeps a clean sheet in 27% (8 of 30 matches).
Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores in 70% of matches (21 of 30 matches), while Ethiopian Medhin keeps a clean sheet in 31% (9 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ethiopian Medhin
Over / Under - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ethiopian Medhin is 16% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - Ethiopian Medhin · 1.1 pts / match - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ethiopian Medhin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ethiopia Nigd Bank - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Ethiopian Medhin | Liga | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.62 | 1.79 | ▲ 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 45% | 41% | ▲ 57% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 24% | 27% | ▲ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 31% | 40% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | • 55% | 54% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | • 59% | 59% | ▲ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Ethiopian MedhinGoalRemedan Yesuf
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ethiopian Medhin 0 - 0 - 1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Ethiopian Medhin 2:1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
Ethiopian Medhin score 0.83 goals per game on average and Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1.23. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.79 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 27% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Ethiopian Medhin's matches and 57% of Ethiopia Nigd Bank's.
What form are Ethiopian Medhin and Ethiopia Nigd Bank in?
Over the last 5 games Ethiopian Medhin have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ethiopian Medhin vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.