Étoile Carouge vs Wil: match statistics

Étoile Carouge has a clear form advantage — in the last 5 matches they averaged 2.2 points (form: wwdwd), while Wil averaged 1.4 points (form: dlwwl). The home side’s attack has been more effective recently: Étoile Carouge scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches versus Wil’s 8, season-long 35 goals vs 31, and the home team’s average xG is 1.57 versus the visitors’ 1.47. Defensively the hosts are stronger — Étoile Carouge conceded only 3 goals in the last 5 matches, while Wil conceded 7, and average xG against is 1.41 (home) vs 1.80 (away), suggesting higher-quality chances for Wil. Action metrics show the hosts’ advantage in possession and shots (15 attempts per match vs 12.73) and a lower share of goalless matches (33% vs 40%), although Wil have slightly more shots on target (4.73 vs 4.13) and a higher conversion rate (7% vs 6%). Considering the average points in the last 5 matches (2.2 vs 1.4), lower xG against (1.41 vs 1.80) and superior recent goal figures (10 vs 8), I predict a home win.

Analysis indicates a slightly higher probability for BTTS - Yes based on several factors: both teams have season BTTS at 47%, but the league average BTTS is 54%, which increases overall chances of both teams scoring. xG shows both sides generate similar expected goals (Étoile 1.49 xG vs 1.47 xG Wil), while Wil concedes more opportunities (xG against 1.80 vs 1.44 for the home side), raising the likelihood of the visitors conceding. Conversely, Wil’s season average goals scored is only 0.87 and they fail to score in 40% of matches, which lowers BTTS probability, but Étoile have averaged 2.0 goals and conceded 0.6 in the last 5 matches (10–3 in the last 5), favoring the home side’s chance to create goals. Étoile average 13.2 shots with 4.07 on target, Wil 12.73 shots with 4.73 on target, and the home side’s shot conversion is 9% versus 7% for the visitors, suggesting an efficiency edge for Étoile. Considering the league 54% BTTS, Étoile’s home form (last 5 BTTS 60%) and Wil’s weaker season efficiency (0.87 goals and 40% of matches without scoring), the pick “Yes” looks strongest, though signals are moderate.

Calculated xG indicate total expected goals around 3.10: Étoile Carouge has xG_for 1.49 and Wil xG_against 1.80 (expected home goals ≈1.64), while Wil has xG_for 1.47 versus Carouge xG_against 1.44 (expected away goals ≈1.46). In the last 5 matches Carouge averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, and Wil averaged 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, giving a combined 3.6 goals in form and confirming an offensive tendency. Season stats show over 1.5 in 60% of home matches and 80% of away matches, over 2.5 occurs in 47% for each team, and over 3.5 is 40% for hosts and 27% for guests. The league averages 2.91 goals per match, so the expected 3.10 exceeds the league average by 0.19, supporting the over option, especially over 1.5. Based on this I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (estimates: over 1.5 = 85%/under 15%; over 2.5 = 64%/36%; over 3.5 = 38%/62%).

A half-time draw appears most likely: Étoile Carouge have been level at the break in 60% of their matches this season and Wil in 40%, yielding roughly a 50% probability of a tie after 45 minutes. The hosts, however, hold the edge in the second half — they average 1.6 goals after the interval versus Wil’s 1.2, and their last 5 home results read W W D W D with a 60% win rate. Supporting the hosts are underlying numbers: Étoile’s xG is 1.49 while Wil concedes an average of 1.8 xG per match (1.49 vs 1.8), and the hosts convert shots at 9% compared to the visitors’ 7%. Still, Étoile keep clean sheets at half-time frequently — they’ve been level without conceding at the break in 67% of games — which suppresses first-half goals and boosts the likelihood of a half-time draw. Taking this into account I favour X/1 as the primary scenario (33%), with 1/1 as an alternative at 16% and X/X at 15%.