Excelsior vs Ajax: match statistics
Ajax clearly outperforms Excelsior in terms of quality and form. Excelsior are only in 13th place in the table with a home goal difference of -2, winning just 40% of their home matches and conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game. Ajax, despite a draw-prone streak away from home (56% draws), holds 3rd position in the league and scores an average of 2.22 goals per away game with a significantly higher conversion rate (15% shot conversion vs 8% for Excelsior). The difference in ball possession (58% vs 46%) and the quality of chances created (xG 1.74 vs 1.31) favor the visitors. Excelsior have shown poor form in their last five home matches (wlllw), while Ajax, despite fluctuations in form, possesses a clearly superior offensive potential. Taking all statistics into account, an Ajax victory is the most likely scenario, although the visitors' tendency to draw away matches cannot be ignored.
Excelsior vs Ajax: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Excelsior played Ajax in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 1 February 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Excelsior: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Ajax: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Excelsior scores 1.00 and concedes 1.75 goals per match. Ajax scores 1.95 and concedes 1.30. League average: 3.25 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Excelsior 60%, Ajax 70%. Over 2.5: Excelsior 60%, Ajax 60%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
Ajax has higher xG: 1.87 vs 1.28. Excelsior: 11.6 shots per match, Ajax: 15.8.
Match halves
Excelsior: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.45. Ajax: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.90.
Goals by minute
Excelsior: 76-90+ (7 goals). Ajax: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.25 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ajax clearly outperforms Excelsior in terms of quality and form. Excelsior are only in 13th place in the table with a home goal difference of -2, winning just 40% of their home matches and conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game. Ajax, despite a draw-prone streak away from home (56% draws), holds 3rd position in the league and scores an average of 2.22 goals per away game with a significantly higher conversion rate (15% shot conversion vs 8% for Excelsior). The difference in ball possession (58% vs 46%) and the quality of chances created (xG 1.74 vs 1.31) favor the visitors. Excelsior have shown poor form in their last five home matches (wlllw), while Ajax, despite fluctuations in form, possesses a clearly superior offensive potential. Taking all statistics into account, an Ajax victory is the most likely scenario, although the visitors' tendency to draw away matches cannot be ignored.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Excelsior | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ajax is 83% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Excelsior · 2.2 pts / match - Ajax
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ajax is 95% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Excelsior · 1.95 goals / match - Ajax
Ajax is 35% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.75 goals / match - Excelsior · 1.3 goals / match - Ajax
Excelsior scores in 75% of matches (15 of 20 matches), while Ajax keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
Ajax scores in 95% of matches (19 of 20 matches), while Excelsior keeps a clean sheet in 20% (4 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Excelsior
Over / Under - Ajax
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ajax is 30% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.35 pts / match - Excelsior · 1.75 pts / match - Ajax
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Excelsior - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ajax - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +8 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Excelsior
Ajax
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Excelsior | Liga | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.75 | 3.25 | • 3.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 60% | 63% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 60% | 62% | ▼ 60% |
| Clean sheets | • 20% | 20% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 84% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 85% | • 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Excelsior 1 - 0 - 0 Ajax. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Excelsior vs Ajax?
The Eredivisie match finished Excelsior 2:2 Ajax. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Excelsior vs Ajax?
Excelsior score 1.00 goals per game on average and Ajax 1.95. The Eredivisie average is 3.25 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Excelsior's matches and 70% of Ajax's.
What form are Excelsior and Ajax in?
Over the last 5 games Excelsior have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Ajax 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Excelsior vs Ajax?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.