FA Šiauliai vs Sūduva: match statistics

Sūduva come into this fixture as league leaders, with a record of 13 wins, 9 draws and just 3 defeats, while FA Šiauliai have recorded 4 wins and 15 losses. The visitors’ form is extremely strong: they have scored 12 goals in their last five matches, winning four times and conceding just 1 goal, whereas the hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 games, with a 5:12 goal difference. Away from home, Sūduva create more danger, averaging 13.17 shots and 5.67 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.55 compared with Šiauliai’s 1.29 at home. The hosts concede an average of 2.15 goals per home game and fail to score in 46% of such matches, while the visitors concede just 0.92 goals away from home. The difference in current attacking efficiency and defensive stability clearly favors a Sūduva victory.

The strongest signal is Sūduva’s current defensive form: they have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while their opponents have managed just 0.90 xG on average. Šiauliai are also in poor offensive form, scoring 5 goals in their last five outings—1.0 per match—and recording BTTS in only 40% of those games. The hosts do have a seasonal average of 1.77 goals scored at home, but Sūduva keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches and have significantly improved in this area over their last five fixtures. The visitors should nevertheless find a way to score, as Šiauliai have recently been conceding 2.4 goals per game, but the more likely scenario is that at least one team—primarily the hosts—will fail to score. This supports BTTS - No / No Goal, meaning that at least one team will not score; it does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest signal is the low goal ceiling: 77% of Šiauliai’s matches and as many as 92% of Sūduva’s matches finished with fewer than 3.5 goals. Sūduva have conceded just 1 goal in their last five league games, or 0.2 per match, while their average xG against over this period is only 0.90, limiting the hosts’ chances. Šiauliai have been weaker defensively, conceding an average of 2.4 goals recently, but Sūduva score 1.50 goals per match over the season, and only 8% of their matches have gone over the 3.5-goal line. The hosts have also kept a clean sheet in 62% of their matches this season, so even with the visitors’ clear current-form advantage, a four-goal scenario remains unlikely. The 2.25-goal projection supports the Under 3.5 selection, providing a margin even in outcomes such as 0:2, 1:2 or 1:1.

Sūduva are in excellent current form: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, winning four times and conceding just 0.2 goals per game, while Šiauliai have lost four of their last five and conceded an average of 2.4 goals. Before the break, the visitors have recently averaged 1.0 goals scored and none conceded, whereas the hosts recorded just 0.6 goals scored against 1.6 conceded and were trailing at half-time in 80% of those matches. Sūduva have avoided losing at half-time in all of their last five outings, including taking the lead in 40%, which clearly strengthens the scenarios involving their advantage in the first half. After the interval, the visitors remain highly effective, averaging 1.4 goals scored per match recently and conceding only 0.2, while Šiauliai have scored just 0.4 goals. Although Šiauliai have a better home record over the entire season, with 62% clean sheets and no defeats, the current disparity in form and defensive performance most strongly points towards Sūduva taking the lead at the break and winning the match.