Fafe vs Vitória Guimarães II: match statistics

Fafe hold a slight advantage in the table, sitting 4th compared with Vitória Guimarães II in 6th, and have collected 4 points from three matches, while the visitors have 3 points from two. The hosts drew their only home match so far 0:0, but created an average of 1.64 xG and allowed their opponents just 0.71 xG, indicating solid defensive organisation. Vitória Guimarães II lost their only away fixture, conceding 3 goals, while their average attacking xG on the road stands at just 0.82, compared with 1.48 xG allowed defensively. Both teams have endured a weaker recent spell, with Fafe scoring 4 goals and conceding 5 in their last five appearances, while the visitors have recorded 5 and 9 respectively. However, the hosts’ higher shot volume at home — 14 per match compared with the visitors’ 7 away — supports a home win. A draw remains a realistic outcome given Fafe’s failure to score in their only home match so far, but Vitória Guimarães II’s defensive problems away from home give the hosts a clearer chance of claiming all three points.

The BTTS - No scenario has the edge primarily because of Fafe’s very strong home defence: the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches, conceding an average of 0.0 goals. Vitória Guimarães II score only 1.0 goal per away match, create an average of just 0.82 xG and register 2 shots on target, while Fafe allow opponents 1.11 xG. In their last five matches, BTTS - Yes landed for Fafe in 40% of cases, while the hosts scored only 0.8 goals per game, further reducing the chances of an open match. The visitors concede as many as 3.0 goals per away match, so Fafe have clear attacking arguments with 2.0 goals and 1.86 xG at home. However, a result with goals only for the hosts is more likely than both teams scoring.

Fafe’s last five matches produced an average of 1.8 goals, while Vitòria Guimarães II’s games averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams exceeding the 2.5-goal line in only 40% of those appearances. During this period, Fafe scored just 0.8 goals per match and conceded 1.0, whereas the visitors scored 1.0 goal per game, although their defense allowed opponents 1.8 goals. The visitors’ attacking potential according to xG stands at 1.69, but it is well counterbalanced by Fafe’s defense, which has kept a clean sheet in 100% of its home matches this season and conceded only 1 goal. The league is clearly low-scoring, averaging 1.95 goals with just 30% of matches going Over 2.5 goals, making Under 3.5 the most stable value option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fafe win: the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, while Vitória Guimarães II were trailing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 games. During this period, Fafe conceded just 0.2 goals per match before the break, compared with 1.4 for the visitors, which supports the likelihood of the hosts at least holding a draw in the first half. After the restart, Fafe have a more favourable profile in their home-match data, averaging 2.0 goals scored and none conceded, while their opponents concede 1.0 goal on average. The hosts’ advantage is also confirmed by their higher xG, 1.86 versus 0.82, as well as 7 shots on target per match compared with just 2 for the visitors. Although Fafe’s recent form is not ideal, with only 1 win in their last 5 matches, Vitória have lost 3 of their last 5 and conceded an average of 1.8 goals. Therefore, the most likely outcome is Fafe completing the turnaround after half-time.