Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: match statistics
Falkirk demonstrates decisively better home form with a 36% win rate and a positive goal difference (+3) at their own ground. The hosts have earned an impressive 10 points (3W-1D-1L) in their last five matches overall, signaling rising form. Kilmarnock struggles immensely away—only 7% wins, a negative goal difference (-16), and a high average of conceded goals (2.14 per match). The visitors concede on average 0.95 goals more than their opponent's xG, indicating defensive problems. Possession statistics (51% vs 37%) and average shots on target (4.07 vs 3.57) also speak in Falkirk's favor. Considering all factors, a home victory is the most likely scenario, although Kilmarnock's solid away draw percentage (43%) prevents completely ruling out a split of points.
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Falkirk played Kilmarnock in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 5:1.
Current form
Falkirk: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Kilmarnock: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Falkirk scores 1.14 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Kilmarnock scores 1.11 and concedes 1.96. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Falkirk 43%, Kilmarnock 61%. Over 2.5: Falkirk 50%, Kilmarnock 64%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Falkirk has higher xG: 1.36 vs 1.27. Falkirk: 12.2 shots per match, Kilmarnock: 11.1.
Match halves
Falkirk: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.71. Kilmarnock: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Falkirk: 46-60 (8 goals). Kilmarnock: 31-45+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Falkirk demonstrates decisively better home form with a 36% win rate and a positive goal difference (+3) at their own ground. The hosts have earned an impressive 10 points (3W-1D-1L) in their last five matches overall, signaling rising form. Kilmarnock struggles immensely away—only 7% wins, a negative goal difference (-16), and a high average of conceded goals (2.14 per match). The visitors concede on average 0.95 goals more than their opponent's xG, indicating defensive problems. Possession statistics (51% vs 37%) and average shots on target (4.07 vs 3.57) also speak in Falkirk's favor. Considering all factors, a home victory is the most likely scenario, although Kilmarnock's solid away draw percentage (43%) prevents completely ruling out a split of points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Falkirk | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kilmarnock is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Falkirk · 1.4 pts / match - Kilmarnock
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Falkirk is 52% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Falkirk · 1.96 goals / match - Kilmarnock
Falkirk scores in 64% of matches (18 of 28 matches), while Kilmarnock keeps a clean sheet in 18% (5 of 28 matches).
Kilmarnock scores in 71% of matches (20 of 28 matches), while Falkirk keeps a clean sheet in 29% (8 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Falkirk
Over / Under - Kilmarnock
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kilmarnock is 45% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.86 pts / match - Falkirk · 1.25 pts / match - Kilmarnock
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Falkirk - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Kilmarnock - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Falkirk
Kilmarnock
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Falkirk | Liga | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.43 | 2.66 | ▲ 3.07 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 49% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 50% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | • 29% | 29% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 74% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 79% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Falkirk 2 - 0 - 0 Kilmarnock. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
The Premiership match finished Falkirk 5:1 Kilmarnock. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkirk and Kilmarnock?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Falkirk won 2, Kilmarnock won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
Falkirk score 1.14 goals per game on average and Kilmarnock 1.11. The Premiership average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Falkirk's matches and 61% of Kilmarnock's.
What form are Falkirk and Kilmarnock in?
Over the last 5 games Falkirk have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Kilmarnock 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.