Farense vs CD Feirense: match statistics

Feirense has a statistical advantage in efficiency and goal output: the visitors average 1.15 goals away versus Farense’s 0.85 at home, and this season Feirense scored 30 goals compared to the hosts’ 23. Although Farense generates slightly better expected chances at home (average xG 1.72 vs Feirense xG 1.55) and records more on-target shots (5.08 vs 4.46), their low conversion rate of 6% versus the visitors’ 8% and a high share of home matches without a goal (62% vs 38%) limit that edge. Defensively the teams are similar — Farense concedes 1.38 goals at home, Feirense 1.54 away, while the hosts have more clean sheets (31% vs 15%), suggesting a potentially low-scoring game. In the last 5 matches Farense scored 3 and conceded 5 with 1.0 point per game, and Feirense scored 2 and conceded 6 with 0.8 points per game, which shows poor efficiency from both sides but greater effectiveness from the visitors. Considering Feirense’s higher position (11 vs 16), better conversion and lower share of matches without a goal, I predict an away win.

Both teams generate almost identical xG (Farense 1.54 vs CD Feirense 1.55), but actual goals scored are lower: Farense 1.07 and Feirense 1.15, representing -0.47 and -0.40 differences vs xG. Farense keeps a clean sheet in 43% of matches vs 15% for Feirense, and in the last 5 rounds BTTS occurred in only 40% of Farense matches and 20% of Feirense matches, indicating a drop in finishing for both teams. In the last 5 games Farense scored 3 goals (0.6 per game) and conceded 5 (1.0), while Feirense scored 2 goals (0.4) and conceded 6 (1.2), so both sides rarely produce high goal counts. Given similar xG but substantially lower conversion (approx. 25–30% fewer goals than xG) and Farense’s clear defensive edge (0.86 conceded per game vs 1.54 for Feirense), the more likely scenario is that only one team scores. Therefore I suggest a split of 40% BTTS - Yes and 60% BTTS - No, with the selection: No.

I pick Over 1.5 as the best option (82% chance) because the combined xG of both teams is 3.09 (1.54 for Farense vs 1.55 for Feirense), and the seasonal goals averages are 1.07 (Farense) and 1.15 (Feirense). I used the mean between xG and actual averages as expected goals: 1.31 for Farense ((1.54+1.07)/2) and 1.35 for Feirense ((1.55+1.15)/2), giving a total of 2.66 goals. Both teams have high rates of matches over 1.5 goals: 57% (Farense) and 69% (Feirense), and Feirense concedes 1.54 goals on average with opponents scoring at least once in 85% of matches, which increases the likelihood of goals. The 2.5 line is more uncertain — season Over2.5 is 36% for Farense and 46% for Feirense, and Farense’s last 5 matches averaged only 0.6 goals per game, so I do not recommend 2.5 as the primary pick. The chance of Over 3.5 is low (season Over3.5: 14% and 23%), so the best risk-reward balance is Over 1.5.

Farense are often level at the break: 79% of home matches are tied at half-time, and the hosts have kept a clean sheet at the break in 71% of games; on average they score 0.36 goals and concede 0.29 before half-time. CD Feirense concedes an average of 1.54 goals per away match and is trailing at the break in 46% of away fixtures, despite scoring an average of 0.54 goals before half-time, which highlights the visitors’ defensive issues in the first period. Both teams generate similar xG (Farense 1.54 vs Feirense 1.55), but Farense enjoy a home advantage in points (1.43 points per home game versus Feirense’s 1.15 points away) and more frequently keep clean sheets over 90 minutes (43% at home). Farense also score relatively often after the break (4 goals in minutes 61–75 and 4 in 76–90), while Feirense concede many goals away in the 31–45 (7) and 76–90 (4) intervals, increasing the hosts’ chance of a second-half turnaround. Therefore the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time outcome of draw at the break and Farense win at full-time (X/1) — I assign this scenario roughly 36% probability; a draw at half-time and full-time (X/X) I estimate at about 28%; and the hosts leading from the start and holding to full-time (1/1) at around 11%.