Farense vs GD Chaves: match statistics

Farense boast a clearly superior league record, having collected 7 points from 4 matches, while GD Chaves have just 1 point and sit 18th. At home, the hosts are unbeaten, averaging 1.5 goals and creating chances worth 1.98 xG, while also recording 18 shots and 7 shots on target per match. Chaves have lost both of their away games so far, scoring just 0.5 goals per match on the road and failing to find the net in 50% of those appearances. The visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, which, combined with Farense’s attacking advantage, increases the hosts’ chances of victory. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Farense have conceded in every home match, but the form record from the last five games—1.4 points per match compared with Chaves’ 0.8—favours the home side.

The signal for both sides to score is strengthened by their form over the last five matches: both Farense and GD Chaves recorded BTTS in 80% of their games, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.6 and 2.0 goals respectively. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while their creative potential remains clear: average xG stands at 1.93 for Farense and 1.71 for Chaves. Farense average 18.5 shots, including 5.0 on target, whereas Chaves have 14.0 attempts and 4.5 shots on target, giving the visitors a realistic chance of breaking down the hosts’ defence. The only risk to the pick is that Chaves have failed to score in 50% of their matches this season, along with the league’s low 39% average BTTS rate; however, the current data for both teams is clearly more goal-heavy than the overall competition trend.

Both teams have averaged 1.4 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Farense have conceded 1.6 goals per game and GD Chaves as many as 2.0. In this run, at least three goals were scored in 80% of matches involving each team, while both teams found the net in 80% of cases. The creative potential is clear: Farense’s average xG stands at 1.93 and GD Chaves’ at 1.71, with 18.5 and 14.0 shots per match respectively. The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet, while the visitors have also yet to record a clean sheet, increasing the chances of the two-goal barrier being breached early. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as the projected total of 3.00 goals provides a very substantial margin over this line, even under a more cautious finishing scenario.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Farense victory at the final whistle, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while their first halves produced an average of just 0.8 goals. Farense scored only 0.2 goals per match in the first halves of their recent fixtures, compared with 0.6 for GD Chaves, which reduces confidence in the hosts taking an early lead. After the break, Farense’s performances improve significantly: they average 1.2 goals in their last 5 matches and win the second half in 60% of cases, whereas Chaves have failed to win any of them. The visitors lost 60% of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 2.0 goals in those games, while Farense have the better overall record, with a 40% win rate compared with their opponents’ 20%. The hosts also hold a clear edge in chance creation, with an average xG of 2.03 compared with Chaves’ 1.65, while they also register an average of 18.5 shots against 14.0.