Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar: match statistics
Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fasil Ketema play Bahardar in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match date is 6 May 2026 at 14:00. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Fasil Ketema: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Bahardar: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fasil Ketema scores 0.74 and concedes 0.74 goals per match. Bahardar scores 0.74 and concedes 0.74. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fasil Ketema 26%, Bahardar 32%. Over 2.5: Fasil Ketema 18%, Bahardar 18%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Bahardar has higher xG: 1.26 vs 1.14. Fasil Ketema: 7.2 shots per match, Bahardar: 8.3.
Match halves
Fasil Ketema: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.42. Bahardar: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.53.
Goals by minute
Fasil Ketema: 76-90+ (7 goals). Bahardar: 46-60 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Fasil Ketema holds a statistical advantage in the table and form: 5th vs 10th for Bahardar, 10 wins this season vs 7 for the visitors, and an average of 1.6 points per game in the last 5 matches vs 1.2 for the opponents. Defensively the hosts are stronger — 18 goals conceded this season (3 in the last 5) and clean sheets in 57% of home games, while Bahardar conceded 22 goals this season (5 in the last 5) and have 50% clean sheets on the road. Attacking numbers are similar: Fasil 19 goals this season vs 21 for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches the hosts scored 2 goals vs 4 for Bahardar; average xG 1.09 (Fasil) vs 1.16 (Bahardar), but the hosts average 2.5 shots on target per game vs 2.07 for the opponents and have better finishing (9% vs 8%) and a lower share of goalless matches (36% vs 50%). Data point to a low-scoring affair with a slight home advantage due to more wins (10 vs 7), better defensive form and higher league position, while the visitors draw frequently (57% of away matches ended in a draw). I therefore project a Fasil Ketema win, though a draw is realistic — estimated probabilities: 55% home win, 30% draw, 15% Bahardar win.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fasil Ketema | Bahardar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fasil Ketema is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Fasil Ketema · 0.6 pts / match - Bahardar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fasil Ketema scores in 58% of matches (22 of 38 matches), while Bahardar keeps a clean sheet in 53% (20 of 38 matches).
Bahardar scores in 47% of matches (18 of 38 matches), while Fasil Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 55% (21 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Fasil Ketema
Over / Under — Bahardar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fasil Ketema is 42% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.42 pts / match - Fasil Ketema · 1 pts / match - Bahardar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fasil Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bahardar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fasil Ketema
Bahardar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Fasil Ketema | Liga | Bahardar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.47 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 26% | 40% | ▼ 32% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 18% | 28% | ▼ 18% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 55% | 40% | ▲ 53% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 34% | 56% | ▼ 39% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 61% | 59% | ▼ 47% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Fasil Ketema 0 - 1 - 0 Bahardar. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Fasil Ketema 0:2 Bahardar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
Fasil Ketema score 0.74 goals per game on average and Bahardar 0.74. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 26% of Fasil Ketema's matches and 32% of Bahardar's.
What form are Fasil Ketema and Bahardar in?
Over the last 5 games Fasil Ketema have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Bahardar 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar?
The statistical background for Fasil Ketema vs Bahardar — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.