FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora: match statistics
FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
FC Arouca played Estrela Amadora in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
FC Arouca: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Estrela Amadora: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
FC Arouca scores 1.43 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Estrela Amadora scores 2.00 and concedes 2.00. League average: 2.74 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: FC Arouca 43%, Estrela Amadora 86%. Over 2.5: FC Arouca 57%, Estrela Amadora 86%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Estrela Amadora has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.19. FC Arouca: 11.0 shots per match, Estrela Amadora: 13.1.
Match halves
FC Arouca: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.86. Estrela Amadora: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 1.57.
Goals by minute
FC Arouca: 46-60 (3 goals). Estrela Amadora: 61-75 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.74 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
FC Arouca have won 2 of their 3 home matches, scoring an average of 2.33 goals, while Estrela Amadora concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. This gives the hosts an edge, although the quality of the chances created is comparable: Arouca’s home xG is 1.55, while Estrela’s away xG is 1.66. Estrela have shown slightly more consistent form recently, earning 8 points from 5 matches compared with Arouca’s 5, but they have also conceded as many as 10 goals during that spell. The hosts have concerns of their own after conceding 7 goals in their last 5 matches, so the visitors cannot be ruled out from scoring. Even so, Arouca’s scoring record at home and Estrela’s weaker away defence point to a home win, with a significant risk of a draw, as the visitors have drawn 2 of their 3 away matches.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS has landed in 75% of Arouca’s matches and 100% of Estrela’s matches under the analyzed conditions, compared with a league average of 50%. Neither team kept a clean sheet in these matches, while their average goals conceded stand at 1.75 and 2.33 respectively, giving both attacks a clear chance to score. Estrela average 2.67 goals per game with an xG of 1.66, while Arouca score 1.5 goals with an xG of 1.25, so the threat is not based solely on results to date. Over their last five matches, BTTS has landed in 60% and 80% of these teams’ games respectively, although Arouca scored only 1 goal per match during that period. The hosts’ lower scoring return slightly reduces confidence in the prediction, but the overall indicators favor BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
In the matches played between these two teams so far, at least 2 goals have been scored every time, making Over 1.5 the strongest signal, although the sample size is small. Arouca average 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, while Estrela average 2.67 scored and 2.33 conceded, pointing to goals at both ends. Across their last 5 matches, the hosts averaged 1.0 goals scored and the visitors 2.0; Estrela also conceded an average of 2.0 goals over that period. The chance-quality data is somewhat more cautious than the results: xG stands at 1.25 for Arouca and 1.66 for Estrela, so I project 3.45 goals in total rather than basing the forecast solely on the high scoring averages. The Over 2.5 line is also well supported, but Over 1.5 has a clearer edge given both teams' consistent record of clearing that line so far.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the strongest signal: Estrela were level at the break in all 3 away matches included in the sample, while Arouca were level in 2 of 4 home fixtures. Both teams were also level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, reinforcing the first part of the X/X scenario. A draw at full-time is supported by the fact that Arouca drew 50% of their home matches, while Estrela drew 67% of their away matches. The visitors do have a higher average xG, at 1.66 compared with the hosts’ 1.25, so X/2 remains a serious alternative. However, Estrela have not kept a clean sheet away from home, and Arouca have averaged 1.25 goals after the break at home, making a draw after 90 minutes the most likely outcome as well.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| FC Arouca | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Estrela Amadora is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - FC Arouca · 1.6 pts / match - Estrela Amadora
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Estrela Amadora is 40% better for: goals scored per match.
1.43 goals / match - FC Arouca · 2 goals / match - Estrela Amadora
FC Arouca is 100% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - FC Arouca · 2 goals / match - Estrela Amadora
FC Arouca scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Estrela Amadora keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 7 matches).
Estrela Amadora scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while FC Arouca keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - FC Arouca
Over / Under - Estrela Amadora
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
FC Arouca is 41% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - FC Arouca · 0.71 pts / match - Estrela Amadora
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
FC Arouca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Estrela Amadora - second-half results
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (5 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
FC Arouca
Estrela Amadora
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| FC Arouca | Liga | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.43 | 2.74 | ▲ 4.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 51% | ▲ 86% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 55% | ▲ 86% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 28% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 71% | • 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 77% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): FC Arouca 1 - 0 - 1 Estrela Amadora. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora?
The Liga NOS match finished FC Arouca 1:0 Estrela Amadora. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Arouca and Estrela Amadora?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches FC Arouca won 1, Estrela Amadora won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora?
FC Arouca score 1.43 goals per game on average and Estrela Amadora 2.00. The Liga NOS average is 2.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 43% of FC Arouca's matches and 86% of Estrela Amadora's.
What form are FC Arouca and Estrela Amadora in?
Over the last 5 games FC Arouca have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Estrela Amadora 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora?
The statistical background for FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.