FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II: match statistics

Philadelphia Union II sit higher in the table and have collected 7 points from their last five matches, compared with just 3 points for FC Cincinnati II. The hosts have been extremely vulnerable defensively of late, conceding 18 goals in their last five games—3.6 per match—and losing 4 of those 5 fixtures. Cincinnati II do have a slightly better home scoring average than their opponents' away average, 1.50 versus 1.25, as well as a higher xG, 1.32 versus 1.15. However, the visitors should be able to exploit the hosts' instability, particularly given that they have recorded 9 wins this season, compared with just 5 for Cincinnati II. The match could be open, as Philadelphia Union II allow opponents an average xG of 1.98 away from home and have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of their matches, but the visitors have a slight edge.

The signal for both sides to score is strengthened by their current form: in their last 5 matches, both FC Cincinnati II and Philadelphia Union II recorded BTTS in 80% of games, compared with the league average of 62%. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.6 goals scored and conceded as many as 3.6, while the visitors scored 1.8 goals and conceded 2.6. Philadelphia Union II have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of their matches this season, while their average xG against is a high 1.98, clearly favouring a Cincinnati goal. Meanwhile, the hosts’ defence allows an average xG of 1.43, and despite having failed to score in 42% of their matches this season, the visitors are currently much more effective, scoring 9 goals in their last five outings. Cincinnati’s seasonal BTTS rate of 58% and Philadelphia’s 50% are lower than their recent form, making a scenario in which both teams score the most likely outcome. In other words, BTTS - Yes is favoured over BTTS - No: BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score, and does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Philadelphia conceded at least one goal in 92% of their matches this season, while FC Cincinnati II scored in 75% of their games. Both teams are also heading into this fixture in very open form: Cincinnati conceded 18 goals in their last 5 appearances, averaging 3.6 per match, while Philadelphia allowed 13 goals, an average of 2.6. In those same five matches, the hosts averaged 1.6 goals scored and the visitors 1.8, while the total exceeded 2.5 goals in 100% and 80% of their respective games. Their attacking potential is also supported by their recent average xG figures: 1.31 for Cincinnati and 1.51 for Philadelphia, alongside high xG values conceded by their defenses, standing at 2.15 and 1.93. The 1.5 line offers a clearer safety margin than Over 2.5, although the projected 3.3 goals also point to a genuine chance of a higher-scoring game.

A draw at half-time is a realistic scenario, as FC Cincinnati II were level at the break in 6 of their 12 matches (50%), while the hosts’ first-half average is just 1.25 goals. Philadelphia Union II have more often started poorly, trailing at half-time in 55% of their away matches, but the last five outings for both teams have been considerably more open: the hosts conceded an average of 1.8 goals before the break, compared with 2.25 for the visitors. After the interval, the advantage shifts to Philadelphia, who averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.75 conceded in their last five matches, whereas Cincinnati recorded figures of 0.6 scored and 1.8 conceded. The visitors are also in better current points-scoring form, averaging 1.4 points over their last five matches compared with 0.6 for the hosts. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a level score at half-time followed by Philadelphia Union II deciding the match in the second half (X/2).