FC Penafiel vs Paços de Ferreira: match statistics
FC Penafiel presents decidedly better home form with a 43% win rate and an impressive 71% clean sheets at their own stadium. The hosts hold a positive goal difference (+2) in home matches, whereas Paços de Ferreira records a disastrous -7 goal difference on the road. The visitors have won just 13% of their away games and failed to score in 63% of matches, which poses a huge problem against Penafiel's solid defense. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.40 vs 0.95), and general form over the last five matches is comparable, though Penafiel boasts a better points record (1.2 vs 1.0 PPG). All these factors point to a probable victory for the hosts, although their low scoring efficiency (0.71 goals/match at home) suggests a low-scoring win or a draw remains a viable option.
FC Penafiel vs Paços de Ferreira: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
FC Penafiel played Paços de Ferreira in LigaPro (Portugal). The match was played on 4 January 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
FC Penafiel: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Paços de Ferreira: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
FC Penafiel scores 0.94 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Paços de Ferreira scores 1.00 and concedes 1.44. League average: 2.45 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: FC Penafiel 38%, Paços de Ferreira 50%. Over 2.5: FC Penafiel 31%, Paços de Ferreira 50%. League level: BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 41%.
xG, shots and style
FC Penafiel has higher xG: 1.36 vs 1.25. FC Penafiel: 11.6 shots per match, Paços de Ferreira: 11.3.
Match halves
FC Penafiel: half-time lead 6%, second-half goals 0.69. Paços de Ferreira: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
FC Penafiel: 76-90+ (7 goals). Paços de Ferreira: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
LigaPro: 2.45 goals per match, BTTS 48%, Over 2.5 41%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
FC Penafiel presents decidedly better home form with a 43% win rate and an impressive 71% clean sheets at their own stadium. The hosts hold a positive goal difference (+2) in home matches, whereas Paços de Ferreira records a disastrous -7 goal difference on the road. The visitors have won just 13% of their away games and failed to score in 63% of matches, which poses a huge problem against Penafiel's solid defense. xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.40 vs 0.95), and general form over the last five matches is comparable, though Penafiel boasts a better points record (1.2 vs 1.0 PPG). All these factors point to a probable victory for the hosts, although their low scoring efficiency (0.71 goals/match at home) suggests a low-scoring win or a draw remains a viable option.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| FC Penafiel | Paços de Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
FC Penafiel is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - FC Penafiel · 1 pts / match - Paços de Ferreira
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paços de Ferreira is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
0.94 goals / match - FC Penafiel · 1 goals / match - Paços de Ferreira
FC Penafiel is 44% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - FC Penafiel · 1.44 goals / match - Paços de Ferreira
FC Penafiel scores in 63% of matches (10 of 16 matches), while Paços de Ferreira keeps a clean sheet in 31% (5 of 16 matches).
Paços de Ferreira scores in 56% of matches (9 of 16 matches), while FC Penafiel keeps a clean sheet in 44% (7 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - FC Penafiel
Over / Under - Paços de Ferreira
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paços de Ferreira is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.88 pts / match - FC Penafiel · 1.06 pts / match - Paços de Ferreira
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
FC Penafiel - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 6% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Paços de Ferreira - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 19%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
FC Penafiel
Paços de Ferreira
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (LigaPro).
Teams vs league
| FC Penafiel | Liga | Paços de Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.94 | 2.45 | • 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 48% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 31% | 41% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 44% | 31% | • 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 44% | 68% | • 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 76% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of FC Penafiel vs Paços de Ferreira?
The LigaPro match finished FC Penafiel 1:2 Paços de Ferreira. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before FC Penafiel vs Paços de Ferreira?
FC Penafiel score 0.94 goals per game on average and Paços de Ferreira 1.00. The LigaPro average is 2.45 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 41% of games. Both teams score in 38% of FC Penafiel's matches and 50% of Paços de Ferreira's.
What form are FC Penafiel and Paços de Ferreira in?
Over the last 5 games FC Penafiel have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Paços de Ferreira 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FC Penafiel vs Paços de Ferreira?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for FC Penafiel vs Paços de Ferreira: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.