Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor: match statistics

Fenerbahçe is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd in the table and at home average 2.31 goals with 19.69 shots and 7.00 on target per match, while Eyüpspor away score only 0.69 goals with 9.94 shots and 2.88 on target. The quality gap in chances is confirmed by xG — hosts have average xG 2.18 at home versus 1.05 xG for visitors on the road, and Fenerbahçe’s finishing efficiency (conversion rate 12% vs 7% for Eyüpspor) amplifies their advantage. Defensively the hosts concede 1.00 goal per home match on average and keep a 25% clean sheet rate, whereas Eyüpspor concede 1.5 goals away, have -13 away goal difference and as much as 56% losses on the road. In the last five matches Fenerbahçe averaged 1.4 points per game and scored 8 goals, while Eyüpspor have recently averaged 2.0 points per game and 11 goals in five fixtures, indicating a short-term form uplift for the visitors. Considering the hosts’ 0% home matches without scoring, possession advantage (62% vs 47%) and markedly superior xG and shot metrics, I tip a home win.

I project BTTS - Yes as more likely: Fenerbahçe averages 1.12 goals scored at home (xG 1.26) while conceding 1.24 at home, and has 74 goals for and 34 against this season, indicating an open style. Eyüpspor officially scores only 0.69 away on average, but in the last 5 matches they are at 2.2 goals and have 60% BTTS in that period, showing a clear uptick in offense. League-wide BTTS occurs in 55% of matches, with seasonal BTTS rates of 41% for home teams and 44% for away teams, which together raise the probability of both teams scoring. Shot statistics corroborate this risk: Fenerbahçe averages 4.06 shots on target out of 11.06 attempts with 10% conversion, Eyüpspor 2.88 on target with 7% conversion, and in the last 5 matches Fenerbahçe scored 8 goals while Eyüpspor scored 11, so both sides are capable of finding the net.

Based on xG: Fenerbahçe has xG_for 1.26 and Eyüpspor xG_against 1.63 — the average implies about 1.45 goals for the home side; conversely Eyüpspor xG_for 1.05 and Fenerbahçe xG_against 1.50 yield ~1.28 for the away side, giving a total of ~2.73 expected goals. Assuming a Poisson distribution with λ≈2.73, the probability of over 1.5 goals (≥2) is ~76%, over 2.5 (≥3) ~51%, and over 3.5 (≥4) ~29%. Form supports this: both teams have 80% over 2.5 in their last 5 matches, and Fenerbahçe’s recent xG is 1.97; shot stats (Fenerbahçe 11.06 shots and 4.06 on target with 10% conversion vs Eyüpspor 9.94/2.88 with 7% conversion) indicate realistic finishing potential. Seasonal figures show over 1.5 in 71% of home matches and 63% of away, and over 2.5 in 47% and 44% respectively — combining season data and recent form, the strongest signal is over 1.5, so I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the best line.

In the last 5 matches Eyüpspor led at the break in 80% of games (4 of 5) and has an average first-half goals of 1.4 versus Fenerbahçe’s 0.4, indicating the visitors’ advantage in the opening 45 minutes. However, after the break the edge switches to Fenerbahçe: at home they average 0.76 goals in second halves, in 88% of home matches at least one goal is scored after the interval, and the hosts accumulated 22 points in second halves, averaging 1.29 points per match compared to Eyüpspor’s 0.63. Additionally Fenerbahçe have higher xG (1.26 vs 1.05) and more on-target shots per game (4.06 vs 2.88), translating into greater control and a higher likelihood of goals in the post-break phase. Minute-by-minute stats confirm the bias: the hosts scored 5 goals after the 60th minute in the 61–75 interval and 5 goals in 76–90, while Eyüpspor conceded 9 goals in minutes 76–90, suggesting the visitors’ tendency to lose leads late on. For these reasons the strongest scenario is 2/1 (HT/FT) — combining Eyüpspor’s 80% HT effectiveness with Fenerbahçe’s second-half dominance provides a strong signal for a turnaround.