Ferencváros vs Paksi SE: match statistics
Ferencváros vs Paksi SE: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ferencváros played Paksi SE in NB I (Hungary). The match was played on 26 April 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Ferencváros: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Paksi SE: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ferencváros scores 1.90 and concedes 1.03 goals per match. Paksi SE scores 1.83 and concedes 1.37. League average: 2.97 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ferencváros 63%, Paksi SE 67%. Over 2.5: Ferencváros 67%, Paksi SE 60%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Paksi SE has higher xG: 1.96 vs 1.89. Ferencváros: 15.7 shots per match, Paksi SE: 15.6.
Match halves
Ferencváros: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.93. Paksi SE: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.10.
Goals by minute
Ferencváros: 31-45+ (12 goals). Paksi SE: 76-90+ (19 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NB I: 2.97 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ferencváros holds a clear edge in chance creation: at home they average 17.29 shots and 6.64 shots on target per match with an average xG of 2.13, whereas Paks away average 13.13 shots, 5.13 shots on target and xG 1.66. This converts into goals — Ferencváros scores an average of 2.00 goals per home match (57 goals this season), while Paks score 1.40 goals away (55 goals in the season overall), and the hosts maintain higher possession at 63% versus 46%. The visitors are however more compact away, conceding 1.07 goals per away match versus 1.36 conceded by Ferencváros at home, but Paks fail to score in 33% of away games while Ferencváros are held scoreless in only 7% of home matches. Both teams show similar form (3 wins in the last 5 and an average of 2 points per match), yet the hosts’ creative advantage is also reflected in goal difference: +9 for Ferencváros at home versus +5 for Paks away. Considering the higher xG 2.13 vs 1.66, greater number of shots on target and the low share of goalless home games for the hosts, I project a Ferencváros win; probabilities are estimated at 60% home, 20% draw and 20% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistics favor the BTTS scenario: Ferencváros has BTTS in 80% of their matches this season, Paks 53%, and the league BTTS average is 60%. The home side scores 2.27 goals on average and has an xG of 2.26 per match, registering 7.07 shots on target with a 13% conversion rate, indicating a genuine scoring threat. Paks scores 1.4 goals per game with an xG of 1.66, but fail to score in 33% of matches and have only 40% BTTS in their last 5 games, so there is a risk they might not find the net. In the last 5 matches Ferencváros have scored 9 and conceded 5, while Paks have also scored 9 and conceded 4, showing a moderate exchange of goals. Considering 80% vs 53% BTTS, Ferencváros’s attacking superiority (xG 2.26) versus the xG generated against Paks (1.65) and low clean sheet rates for the hosts (13% vs 27%), I estimate BTTS at 70% Yes and 30% No — therefore the pick is Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Comparing xG and average goals, Ferencváros has an xG of 2.26 and scores 2.27 goals per match on average, while Paksi concedes xG 1.65 and allows 1.07 goals on average, yielding an expected ~1.96 goals for the home side. For the visitors, xG 1.66 against Ferencváros’s defense 1.44 translates to ~1.55 expected goals, and the total expected goals sum to ~3.51. A Poisson model with a mean of 3.51 gives roughly an 87% chance of over 1.5 goals, ~68% for over 2.5 goals and ~47% for over 3.5 goals. Additionally, Ferencváros have 73% of matches over 2.5 and 53% over 3.5, while Paksi have 47% and 20% respectively; both sides record BTTS in 80% (Ferencváros) and 53% (Paksi), which reinforces the over signal. Based on this, the strongest and most reliable pick is over 1.5 (probability ~87%), while over 2.5 also shows a significant edge (~68%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most likely scenario: the home team draws at half-time in 47% of matches, while Paksi do so in 60% of their games, with a lead at the break occurring in only 33% of cases. Ferencváros holds a clear advantage in quality of chances – average xG for the home side is 2.26 versus 1.66 for the visitors, shots on target 7.07 compared to 5.13, and a higher conversion rate of 13% vs 11%. In the second half the home team scores an average of 1.6 goals and the visitors 0.6, and the average goals after the break in home matches is 2.73 versus 1.33 for Paksi, which suggests that from an HT draw they more often go on to take the lead. Additionally, Ferencváros have scored 13 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 6 by Paksi, so the scenario of a half-time draw and a home win (X/1) is the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ferencváros | Paksi SE | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ferencváros is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.03 goals / match - Ferencváros · 1.37 goals / match - Paksi SE
Ferencváros scores in 93% of matches (28 of 30 matches), while Paksi SE keeps a clean sheet in 20% (6 of 30 matches).
Paksi SE scores in 80% of matches (24 of 30 matches), while Ferencváros keeps a clean sheet in 30% (9 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ferencváros
Over / Under - Paksi SE
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ferencváros is 24% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.9 pts / match - Ferencváros · 1.53 pts / match - Paksi SE
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ferencváros - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Paksi SE - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +11 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ferencváros
Paksi SE
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NB I).
Teams vs league
| Ferencváros | Liga | Paksi SE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.93 | 2.97 | ▲ 3.20 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 60% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 59% | • 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 30% | 22% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | • 70% | 69% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 86% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Ferencváros 1 - 1 - 0 Paksi SE. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ferencváros vs Paksi SE?
The NB I match finished Ferencváros 2:0 Paksi SE. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ferencváros and Paksi SE?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Ferencváros won 1, Paksi SE won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ferencváros vs Paksi SE?
Ferencváros score 1.90 goals per game on average and Paksi SE 1.83. The NB I average is 2.97 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Ferencváros's matches and 67% of Paksi SE's.
What form are Ferencváros and Paksi SE in?
Over the last 5 games Ferencváros have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Paksi SE 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ferencváros vs Paksi SE?
The statistical background for Ferencváros vs Paksi SE — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.