Flota Świnoujście vs Victoria Września: match statistics

Flota Świnoujście hold a slight advantage, primarily due to their home form, where they have won 1 of 2 matches, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding just 0.5 goals per game. Victoria Września have lost all 3 matches this season, and in their only away fixture they failed to score and suffered defeat. The visitors’ defense remains a clear problem, as they have already conceded 9 goals in the competition and as many as 13 in their last 5 appearances. Although Victoria create chances worth 1.29 xG away from home and average 12 shots per game, this has not translated into scoring efficiency, as evidenced by 100% of their away matches ending without a goal. Flota have also failed to impress, with just 1 win in their last 5 matches, but their more solid home defense should give them a better chance of securing a narrow victory.

The signal for both sides to score is primarily driven by their current defensive form: Flota conceded an average of 1.2 goals in their last 5 matches, while Victoria conceded as many as 2.6. Victoria scored 1.2 goals per game during this period and recorded BTTS in 80% of matches, while its average xG stands at 1.17. Flota scored just 0.6 goals per game in their last five outings, but the opposition allowed an average xG of 1.98, which clearly increases the hosts’ chances of finding the net. Neither team has kept a clean sheet in the available season data, while the league records a high BTTS rate of 67%. However, the BTTS - Yes pick is only moderate, as Flota recorded BTTS in just 20% of their last 5 matches, and Victoria have yet to score a goal in the season data.

The projection of 2.65 goals is primarily based on recent form: Flota averaged 0.6 goals scored over their last five matches, while Victoria averaged 1.2. However, both defenses allowed opponents quality chances, with average xG against them standing at 2.14 and 1.98 respectively, keeping a realistic possibility of a result in the region of 2–3 goals. Victoria had 80% of their last five matches finish Over 2.5 goals, compared with just 40% for Flota, while the league average of 3.52 goals is clearly above the expected level for this match. The Under 3.5 goals line has the edge, as it requires at least four goals to lose, and the offensive data of both teams does not support such a high and consistent scoring potential.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Flota win, as the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches and conceded just 0.4 goals on average during the opening 45 minutes. Victoria also had a draw at half-time in 40% of their recent games, but their first halves were considerably more open: they scored an average of 1.0 goals and conceded 1.2. After the interval, the advantage should shift towards Flota, who averaged 1.0 points per second half across their last five appearances, compared with just 0.2 for Victoria. The visitors conceded an average of 1.4 goals after the break, while the hosts conceded 0.8, supporting the scenario of Flota settling the match in the final stages. Although Victoria averages 12 shots per match compared with Flota’s 7, their recent run includes as many as 80% defeats, while the hosts have won 1 of their last 5 matches and averaged 0.8 points per game, compared with their opponents’ 0.6.