Fluminense vs Bahia: match statistics
Fluminense vs Bahia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fluminense played Bahia in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 30 July 2026. Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Fluminense: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Bahia: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fluminense scores 1.50 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Bahia scores 1.45 and concedes 1.25. League average: 2.62 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fluminense 75%, Bahia 70%. Over 2.5: Fluminense 50%, Bahia 50%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Fluminense has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.61. Fluminense: 14.8 shots per match, Bahia: 14.4.
Match halves
Fluminense: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.80. Bahia: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Fluminense: 76-90+ (8 goals). Bahia: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.62 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-2-0. Average goals 3.33, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Fluminense holds a clear home advantage: average possession 60% versus Bahia’s 51%, 17.3 shots per match versus 13.11, and 6.5 shots on target versus 4.33 for the visitors, translating to 1.95 xG for the hosts compared to 1.44 xG for Bahia. In practice Fluminense scores on average 1.8 goals per home game and has no matches without scoring (0%), while Bahia as an away side averages 1.33 goals per game and has 11% of matches without a goal. Defensively the hosts concede 1.1 goals per match with xG against 1.16, whereas Bahia concedes 1.56 goals away with xG against 1.87, indicating greater defensive stability for Fluminense. Both teams have similar season goal tallies (Fluminense 29 vs Bahia 28) and identical recent form in points per game over the last five matches (1.6 PPG), but Fluminense’s edge at home is also reflected in a 70% home win rate versus Bahia’s 44% away win rate. Therefore I back the home win, with a moderate probability of a draw given the overall seasonal parity between the sides.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show strong BTTS indicators: Fluminense records 70% of season matches with both teams scoring, Bahia 67%, and in the last 5 meetings both sides register 80% BTTS. Over the season Fluminense averages 1.6 goals scored (29 goals) and concedes 1.0, Bahia scores 1.33 (28 goals) and concedes 1.56, while in the last 5 matches the goal values are 1.4/1.0 for Fluminense and 1.6/1.2 for Bahia, indicating consistency on both ends. xG confirms offensive potential and defensive vulnerabilities: Fluminense has 1.79 xG and concedes 1.21 xG, Bahia generates 1.44 xG and concedes 1.87 xG, so both teams have realistic scoring chances. Fluminense averages 6.1 shots on target versus Bahia's 4.33, and clean sheet percentages are only 30% and 22%; additionally Over 2.5 occurs in 50% and 56% of matches, which reduces the likelihood of a 0-0. Based on the above data, I project BTTS at 75% (Yes) versus 25% (No) and recommend selecting "Yes".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Combined expected goals from xG amount to approximately 1.83 for Fluminense (average of 1.79 xG attacking and 1.87 xG against Bahia) and 1.33 for Bahia (average of 1.44 xG attacking and 1.21 xG against Fluminense), giving a total of ~3.16 goals. Goal statistics confirm offensive pressure: Fluminense scores on average 1.6 goals per match, Bahia 1.33, and BTTS is 70% and 67% respectively, indicating both teams frequently score. Seasonal over1.5 occurs in 100% of Fluminense’s matches and 78% of Bahia’s, so I assess the probability of over1.5 at around 88%. The 2.5 line has weaker support (over2.5 50% for Fluminense, 56% for Bahia, league 51%), hence a moderate 54% for over2.5, while over3.5 is unlikely (10%/33%), so I assign it only ~22%. As a result the strongest signal from the data is a play on over 1.5 (over, line 1.5) based on the expected 3.16 goals and the high 100% vs 78% seasonal over1.5 rates and elevated BTTS.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Fluminense clearly outcreates Bahia: average xG 1.79 versus 1.44 for Bahia, and 15.7 shots with 6.1 on target per match compared to 13.11 and 4.33 for the opponent. At half-time the home side average 0.8 goals (Bahia 0.67), and in the last 5 matches Fluminense averaged 1.6 goals by the break versus 1.0 for Bahia, although Bahia led at the break in 44% of games versus 30% for Fluminense — the only risk signal in the first 45 minutes. Over the full 90 minutes Fluminense’s advantage is justified defensively — they concede 1.0 goals per game versus Bahia’s 1.56 and have a lower xG against (1.21 vs 1.87). Additionally, the hosts have scored 5 goals in minutes 76–90 this season versus 3 for Bahia, which increases the chance of holding a lead. Both teams score frequently (70% for Fluminense and 67% for Bahia), so goals from both sides are possible, but given the 1.79 xG, 6.1 shots on target and superior defense, the most likely scenario is 1/1 (lead at the break and a Fluminense win).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fluminense | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bahia is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Fluminense · 1.6 pts / match - Bahia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fluminense scores in 90% of matches (18 of 20 matches), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
Bahia scores in 95% of matches (19 of 20 matches), while Fluminense keeps a clean sheet in 15% (3 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Fluminense
Over / Under — Bahia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fluminense is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.65 pts / match - Fluminense · 1.3 pts / match - Bahia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fluminense - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fluminense
Bahia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Fluminense | Liga | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.75 | 2.62 | • 2.70 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 59% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 49% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 23% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 75% | 77% | ▲ 95% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 78% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Fluminense 1 - 2 - 0 Bahia. Average goals 3.33, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fluminense vs Bahia?
The Serie A match finished Fluminense 0:0 Bahia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Bahia?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 1, Bahia won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Fluminense vs Bahia?
Fluminense score 1.50 goals per game on average and Bahia 1.45. The Serie A average is 2.62 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Fluminense's matches and 70% of Bahia's.
What form are Fluminense and Bahia in?
Over the last 5 games Fluminense have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Bahia 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fluminense vs Bahia?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.