Fluminense vs Grêmio: match statistics
Fluminense presents better form in the last five matches with a record of 4 wins and 1 loss, translating to 2.4 points per match. Grêmio, in the same period, achieved 3 wins with 2 losses and a lower rate of 1.8 points per match. The hosts have scored 8 goals while conceding 5 in recent meetings, whereas the guests hold a 13:5 record, evidencing their offensive potential. Both teams occupy similar positions in the table (11th and 12th place), suggesting a competitive rivalry. The home ground advantage and a better run of results speak for a Fluminense victory, although Grêmio's offensive efficiency could make the match close. The lack of detailed home and away statistics hampers precise analysis, so the probabilities are relatively close with a slight advantage for the hosts.
Fluminense vs Grêmio: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Fluminense play Grêmio in Serie A (Brazil). The match date is 28 January 2026 at 23:30. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Fluminense: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Grêmio: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Fluminense scores 1.53 and concedes 1.26 goals per match. Grêmio scores 1.11 and concedes 1.32. League average: 2.65 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Fluminense 74%, Grêmio 58%. Over 2.5: Fluminense 53%, Grêmio 42%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Fluminense has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.23. Fluminense: 15.2 shots per match, Grêmio: 11.2.
Match halves
Fluminense: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.79. Grêmio: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Fluminense: 76-90+ (8 goals). Grêmio: 46-60 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.65 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Match description
Fluminense presents better form in the last five matches with a record of 4 wins and 1 loss, translating to 2.4 points per match. Grêmio, in the same period, achieved 3 wins with 2 losses and a lower rate of 1.8 points per match. The hosts have scored 8 goals while conceding 5 in recent meetings, whereas the guests hold a 13:5 record, evidencing their offensive potential. Both teams occupy similar positions in the table (11th and 12th place), suggesting a competitive rivalry. The home ground advantage and a better run of results speak for a Fluminense victory, although Grêmio's offensive efficiency could make the match close. The lack of detailed home and away statistics hampers precise analysis, so the probabilities are relatively close with a slight advantage for the hosts.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Fluminense | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fluminense is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Fluminense · 0.8 pts / match - Grêmio
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fluminense is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.53 goals / match - Fluminense · 1.11 goals / match - Grêmio
Fluminense is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.26 goals / match - Fluminense · 1.32 goals / match - Grêmio
Fluminense scores in 89% of matches (17 of 19 matches), while Grêmio keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
Grêmio scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while Fluminense keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Fluminense
Over / Under — Grêmio
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fluminense is 60% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.68 pts / match - Fluminense · 1.05 pts / match - Grêmio
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Fluminense - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Grêmio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Fluminense
Grêmio
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Fluminense | Liga | Grêmio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.79 | 2.65 | ▼ 2.42 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 74% | 59% | • 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 53% | 50% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 23% | ▲ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 77% | ▼ 58% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 84% | 78% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Fluminense 2 - 0 - 0 Grêmio. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Fluminense vs Grêmio?
The Serie A match finished Fluminense 2:1 Grêmio. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Grêmio?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 2, Grêmio won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Fluminense vs Grêmio?
Fluminense score 1.53 goals per game on average and Grêmio 1.11. The Serie A average is 2.65 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 74% of Fluminense's matches and 58% of Grêmio's.
What form are Fluminense and Grêmio in?
Over the last 5 games Fluminense have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Grêmio 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Fluminense vs Grêmio?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Fluminense vs Grêmio: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.