Fortaleza CEIF vs Junior: match statistics

Fortaleza CEIF have a clear home advantage: they win 43% of their matches on home soil and average 1.29 goals, while Junior lose as many as 47% of their away games. The hosts create more chances, averaging 13.29 shots and 4.79 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.44 compared with Junior’s 1.26 away from home. Fortaleza’s home defence concedes an average of 1.00 goals, with an xGA of 1.17, whereas Junior allow opponents an xG of 1.67 and concede 1.27 goals per away match. Both teams are nevertheless in poor and identical form, as neither has won any of their last five matches, drawing three times each and scoring 6 and 7 goals respectively. The superior chance quality and greater possession control Fortaleza display at home, where they average 56% possession, slightly favour a home win.

Both teams have a seasonal rate of matches with goals scored by both sides of 53%, while in their last five games this figure has risen to 80% for each side. Fortaleza conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match during this run, while Junior conceded as many as 2.0, significantly increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Junior also shows strong attacking potential: its xG from the last five matches stands at 1.81, while Fortaleza allowed opponents 1.73 xG. The hosts averaged 1.2 goals across their last five appearances, while Junior’s defense conceded 10 goals in those games, or 2.0 per match. Fortaleza’s and Junior’s seasonal averages of 1.59 and 1.27 goals, respectively, combined with the low percentages of matches in which they failed to score—24% and 20%—support the BTTS - Yes pick.

Fortaleza averages 1.59 goals scored, while Junior concedes 1.27, with the hosts’ 1.57 xG providing solid support for their scoring projection. Junior averages 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 xG, while Fortaleza allows opponents 1.21 xG, limiting expectations for a high attacking output from the visitors. However, both teams have experienced defensive issues in their last five matches, conceding 1.6 and 2.0 goals per game respectively, making the 2.5 line very finely balanced. At the same time, Fortaleza’s matches have ended with under 3.5 goals in 76% of cases, and Junior’s in as many as 87%, so the strongest signal points to Under 3.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fortaleza win in the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 41% of their games, while Junior recorded this outcome in as many as 80% of their last five matches. Fortaleza concede an average of just 0.47 goals before half-time, while their average first-half scoring rate stands at 0.65 goals, pointing to an even and cautious opening. After the break, the hosts score an average of 0.94 goals—twice as many as Junior (0.47)—while Junior conceded as many as 1.4 goals per match after half-time across their last five games. Fortaleza’s advantage is also evident in their attacking performance: their xG stands at 1.57 compared with 1.26 for their opponents, and they average 14.59 shots per game against Junior’s 11.53. The visitors have failed to win any of their last five matches, while Fortaleza are also winless during this period, making a Fortaleza turnaround most likely to come only in the second half.