Fortaleza vs Ceará: match statistics

Fortaleza are very strong at home: they win 67% of their matches, score an average of 1.67 goals and concede just 0.83 per game. Ceará win only 17% of their away matches, lose 50% of them and score just 0.83 goals on average. The hosts create significantly more high-quality chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.87 compared with Ceará’s 1.24, and also average 18.25 shots per game compared with their opponents’ 11.42. Fortaleza’s defence has kept a clean sheet in 42% of home matches, while Ceará have failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures. The last five matches also favour the hosts: Fortaleza remain unbeaten and have conceded just 2 goals during this period, whereas Ceará have allowed 8 goals.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by Ceará’s limited attacking potential: the visitors score just 0.83 goals per match on average and failed to score in 50% of their matches this season. Fortaleza have conceded only 2 goals in their last five games, or 0.4 per match, which clearly makes it difficult for the visitors to break through. The hosts, meanwhile, should have good opportunities to score, as they create an average of 1.72 xG with 5.14 shots on target, while Ceará concede 1.42 goals and allow opponents 1.69 xG on average. Ceará’s overall BTTS rate stands at 42%, below the league average of 48%, while Fortaleza recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last five appearances. The most likely scenario is therefore that at least one team—particularly Ceará—fails to score.

Fortaleza create chances worth an average of 1.72 xG at home, while Ceará allow opponents 1.69 xG on average away from home, which supports the case for a home goal. However, the visitors are significantly less effective, averaging 0.83 goals per match and failing to score in 50% of their games, while Fortaleza have conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 appearances. Over 3.5 goals has landed in just 14% of Fortaleza’s matches and 8% of Ceará’s, while results below this line occurred in 86% and 92% of cases, respectively. In addition, Fortaleza have not had a single match with at least 3 goals in their last 5 league fixtures, which is why Under 3.5 has by far the strongest statistical backing.

Fortaleza have a clear advantage at half-time: they have been leading at the break in 36% of their matches, while Ceará have never gone into half-time ahead. The hosts average 0.64 goals scored and 0.43 conceded before the break, whereas the visitors score just 0.08 goals and concede 0.67. In their last five matches, Fortaleza have not been trailing at half-time, recording a 40% lead and 60% draw rate, while Ceará have been behind after the first half in 60% of their games. Over the full match, Fortaleza win 43% of their fixtures with an average xG of 1.72, higher than Ceará’s 1.24, while the hosts’ opponents average 1.69 xG. Therefore, the most likely outcome is Fortaleza leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle: 1/1.