Fram vs Thór: match statistics

Fram is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd in the table with 8 wins this season, while Thór are 12th with just 2 wins. The hosts average 3.0 goals per home game (32 goals this season), registering 15.83 shots and 6.17 on target per home match with a 19% conversion, whereas Thór away average only 0.83 goals with 9.83 shots and 2.83 on target (8% conversion). Fram produces 1.95 xG at home, while Thór have 1.11 xG on the road and concede as much as 2.45 xG per away match, indicating the hosts create significantly more clear-cut chances. In the last 5 matches Fram have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (2.0 pts/match), while Thór have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses (0.4 pts/match); additionally Thór conceded 15 goals in their last 5 matches versus 12 conceded by Fram. Considering Fram’s superiority in shots on target (6.17 vs 2.83), better efficiency (19% vs 8%) and the visitors’ weaker defense (averaging 3.0 conceded goals away), I predict a Fram win, although I expect a high-scoring game.

Statistics strongly support BTTS - Yes: 74% of league matches finish with both teams scoring, Fram has 71% BTTS this season and Thór 50%. In the last 5 games Fram had BTTS in 60% of cases (scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.4 on average), while Thór had BTTS in 100% (scoring 1.6 and conceding 3.0 on average), indicating both teams have recently been scoring and conceding. Season-wide Fram averages 1.29 goals for and 2.43 against with xG for Fram 1.22 and xG against 2.31, whereas Thór averages 0.83 goals for and 3.00 against with xG for Thór 1.11 and xG against 2.45 — both defenses show high vulnerability. Additionally, Fram has only 14% clean sheets, Thór 0% clean sheets, and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 71% and 67% of fixtures respectively, which favors goal exchange. Based on this I tip BTTS = Yes with a probability of 80% versus 20% No, because the high league BTTS rate (74%), low clean sheet percentages and recent form (Thór 100% BTTS in last 5) create a strong signal for both teams to score.

In the last 5 matches Fram had an xG of 1.82 and scored 11 goals (2.2 avg), while Thór had an xG of 1.01 and scored 8 goals (1.6 avg); they conceded 2.4 and 3.0 goals respectively, yielding a combined average of 4.6 goals per meeting. Seasonal rates confirm a tendency for goals: Fram records Over 1.5 in 71% and Over 2.5 in 71%, Thór has Over 1.5 in 83% and Over 2.5 in 67%, and the league averages 4.0 goals per match with BTTS 74%. Based on combined xG = 1.82+1.01 = 2.83, a simple Poisson model gives about a 78% chance of Over 1.5 goals and ~54% for Over 2.5 goals, however historical Over 2.5 (on average ~69% for both teams) and the recent average of 4.6 goals increase the credibility of Over 2.5 to around 62%. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (~78%), Over 2.5 shows a clear edge (~62%), while Over 3.5 looks less likely (~43%). I recommend backing the Over line at 1.5 due to Fram’s high xG (1.82), frequent BTTS (71%/50%) and seasonal Over 2.5 rates above 67%.

I forecast HT/FT 1/1 because Fram has a 60% win rate in the last 5 matches and led at the break in 60% of games, averaging 2.0 points per match, whereas Thór has a 0% win rate in the last 5 and averages 0.4 points per match. Fram scores an average of 0.57 goals by half-time versus 0.17 for Thór and has scored 4 goals in the 0–15 minute window this season while Thór has 0 in that interval, which strongly signals an early lead for the home side. xG data show Fram generates 1.22 xG on average against Thór’s 1.11 xG, and both teams concede many chances (xG against: Fram 2.31, Thór 2.45), so I expect goals but the edge belongs to Fram. Fram has collected 8 points at half-time this season and averages 1.14 points per match at half-time, compared to Thór’s 1 point total and 0.17 points per match at half-time, increasing the likelihood that the home side will retain the lead until full-time. Fram concedes on average 1.0 goals by half-time and 1.43 after the break, so scenarios of 1/X and X/1 are realistic, but I assign the highest probability to 1/1.