Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08: match statistics

Fredrikstad go into this match in significantly better form: they have won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 14 goals and conceding just 4, while Sarpsborg 08 have managed only 1 win and 6 goals over the same period. At home, the hosts win 56% of their matches and average 1.33 goals, whereas the visitors win just 20% of their away games and concede an average of 1.60 goals. Fredrikstad create chances worth an average of 1.46 xG at home, while Sarpsborg’s defence allows opponents 1.69 xG, pointing to favourable conditions for the hosts. The visitors’ struggles in front of goal away from home are also significant: they have failed to score in 40% of their away matches, compared with just 11% for Fredrikstad. The derby could be closely contested given the similar number of shots on target—4.0 to 3.9 per game—but the hosts’ superior current form and home advantage make Fredrikstad the more likely winners.

BTTS - Yes is supported by Fredrikstad’s season profile, with both teams scoring in 67% of their matches, as well as by the current form of both sides, where this rate stands at 60% over their last five games. Fredrikstad are in excellent attacking form, averaging 2.8 goals per match recently, while Sarpsborg, despite scoring only 1.2 goals per game, have a high xG of 1.87. Both defenses also allow opponents to create chances: the average xG conceded is 1.63 for the hosts and 1.69 for the visitors, which favors a goal at both ends. Sarpsborg keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches and fail to score in 40%, so the risk of a No Goal scenario for the visitors is significant. However, the attacking potential of this fixture gives a slight edge to BTTS - Yes.

Fredrikstad are in excellent attacking form, scoring 14 goals in their last 5 matches, an average of 2.8 per game, while Sarpsborg have conceded an average of 1.6 goals this season. The hosts create an average of 1.59 xG per match, whereas the visitors’ defence allows opponents 1.69 xG, supporting a result of around 1–2 goals for Fredrikstad. However, Sarpsborg average only 1.10 goals scored this season, while Fredrikstad concede an average of 1.00, although the visitors’ recent xG of 1.87 increases their chances of scoring. Despite the potential for 2 or 3 goals, under 3.5 goals has landed in 89% of Fredrikstad matches and 70% of Sarpsborg’s, while neither team averages more than 1.22 goals across the entire season. The strongest signal therefore remains Under 3.5 goals, as the hosts’ current attacking form does not outweigh both teams’ clear seasonal tendency towards matches with fewer than four goals.

The strongest scenario is Fredrikstad leading at the break and the home side securing the win, as they were ahead after 45 minutes in 44% of their matches, rising to 80% across their last five games. Fredrikstad averaged 0.89 goals scored and only 0.44 conceded before half-time, while Sarpsborg 08 allowed opponents an average of 0.90 first-half goals away from home. Current form also clearly favours the hosts: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals and conceding 0.8, whereas the visitors have won just 1 of their last 5 games. Fredrikstad’s advantage is also evident over the course of the season: the hosts average 1.67 points per match compared with Sarpsborg 08’s 0.90, while the visitors lose 50% of their fixtures. After the break, Fredrikstad have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded in their last five matches, increasing the likelihood of them maintaining or extending the lead established before half-time.