Freiburg vs RB Leipzig: match statistics
Freiburg vs RB Leipzig: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Freiburg played RB Leipzig in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
Freiburg: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. RB Leipzig: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Freiburg scores 1.42 and concedes 1.70 goals per match. RB Leipzig scores 1.97 and concedes 1.30. League average: 3.22 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Freiburg 61%, RB Leipzig 61%. Over 2.5: Freiburg 64%, RB Leipzig 70%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
RB Leipzig has higher xG: 1.79 vs 1.37. Freiburg: 12.3 shots per match, RB Leipzig: 15.8.
Match halves
Freiburg: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.88. RB Leipzig: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.03.
Goals by minute
Freiburg: 76-90+ (12 goals). RB Leipzig: 31-45+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.22 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
RB Leipzig are the favorites, as the numbers show: 20 wins and 65 goals this season versus Freiburg’s 12 wins and 47 goals, and a 3rd place vs 7th place further confirms the advantage. In the last 5 matches RB have won 4, scored 10 goals and average 2.4 points per match, while Freiburg have won only 1, scored 7 goals and average 0.8 points per match. Defensively Freiburg have poor recent figures: they conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per match) despite conceding on average 1.31 goals per home game this season; RB conceded 7 in the last 5 (1.4 per match) and have 43 conceded in the season overall. In attack xG metrics are similar (Freiburg home xG 1.60 vs Leipzig away xG 1.55), but Freiburg have a higher home conversion rate (13% vs 11%) and more shots on target per match (5.13 vs 4.63), which limits the visitors’ chances of fully dominating the game. Considering the visitors’ better form, higher season goal tally (65 vs 47) and fewer goals conceded over the season, I tip an RB Leipzig win; probabilities allocated as 20% home, 25% draw, 55% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams display high BTTS rates: Freiburg 65% this season, RB Leipzig 56% this season, and both teams are at 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches, indicating a strong two-way scoring trend. Freiburg averages 2.35 goals per game with xG 2.00, while Leipzig averages 1.56 goals with xG 1.55; defensively Freiburg concedes 1.18 goals per game and Leipzig 1.44, so both teams both create and allow goals. In the last 5 fixtures Freiburg scored 7 and conceded 11 (averages 1.4 and 2.2), and Leipzig scored 10 and conceded 7 (averages 2.0 and 1.4); recent xG shows 1.19 for Freiburg and 2.1 for Leipzig, indicating genuine chances from both sides. Freiburg generates more opportunities (17.29 shots and 7.29 on target vs 14.31 and 4.63 for Leipzig) and has higher shot efficiency (14% vs 11%); additionally Freiburg has 0% matches without a goal, and clean sheets for the two teams are only 35% and 31% this season. Considering season BTTS 65%/56%, league BTTS rate 62% and the strong last-5 signal (80%/80%), I assign the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario a 72% probability versus 28% for 'No', therefore I recommend a bet on 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG for this match is 3.55 (xG Freiburg 2.00 vs xG RB 1.55), which suggests an expectation above 2.5 goals. Freiburg averages 2.35 goals per match and records 7.29 shots on target, while RB averages 1.56 goals and 4.63 shots on target, giving the home side an advantage in chance creation. Historically the >2.5 line occurred in 76% of Freiburg’s matches and 63% of RB’s matches, and in the last 5 meetings both teams produced over2.5 in 80% of cases, confirming the trend. The >3.5 line is more uncertain: Freiburg has 53% of such games, RB 38%, and the league average is 3.22 goals (below 3.5), so the probability hovers around 50%. Considering xG 3.55, high over2.5 shares (76% and 63%) and form (last 5 matches over2.5 at 80% each), I recommend Over 2.5 goals as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Freiburg has a clear advantage in the first half: they led at the break in 53% of matches and average 1.12 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.29, whereas RB Leipzig average 0.75 scored and 0.63 conceded by half-time. This advantage persists over the full match — Freiburg averages 2.35 goals with an xG of 2.00, while Leipzig average 1.56 goals with an xG of 1.55; the hosts register 7.29 shots on target versus 4.63 for the visitors and convert 14% of attempts compared to 11% for their opponents. Season-long, Freiburg have won 71% of home matches, which, together with the xG and shot superiority, suggests a high probability of maintaining a lead from half-time to full-time. One must however account for form: in the last 5 matches Freiburg have only a 20% win rate, while RB Leipzig are at 80%, which reduces our confidence and increases the visitors’ chance of a turnaround after the break. Weighing these figures, I assess a 49% probability for the 1/1 scenario as the strongest signal; the second-strongest is X/1 (~23%) as the possibility of the hosts winning after a half-time draw.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Freiburg | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
RB Leipzig is 71% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Freiburg · 2.4 pts / match - RB Leipzig
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
RB Leipzig is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.42 goals / match - Freiburg · 1.97 goals / match - RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig is 31% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.7 goals / match - Freiburg · 1.3 goals / match - RB Leipzig
Freiburg scores in 73% of matches (24 of 33 matches), while RB Leipzig keeps a clean sheet in 33% (11 of 33 matches).
RB Leipzig scores in 91% of matches (30 of 33 matches), while Freiburg keeps a clean sheet in 18% (6 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Freiburg
Over / Under - RB Leipzig
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
RB Leipzig is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.24 pts / match - Freiburg · 1.7 pts / match - RB Leipzig
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Freiburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
RB Leipzig - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Freiburg
RB Leipzig
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Freiburg | Liga | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.12 | 3.22 | • 3.27 |
| Both teams scored | • 61% | 62% | • 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 64% | 64% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 21% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 77% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | • 85% | 86% | • 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Freiburg 0 - 0 - 1 RB Leipzig. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
The Bundesliga match finished Freiburg 4:1 RB Leipzig. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Freiburg score 1.42 goals per game on average and RB Leipzig 1.97. The Bundesliga average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Freiburg's matches and 61% of RB Leipzig's.
What form are Freiburg and RB Leipzig in?
Over the last 5 games Freiburg have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and RB Leipzig 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.