Freiburg vs Union Berlin: match statistics

Freiburg are 3rd in the table and have won 75% of their home matches, while 16th-placed Union Berlin have yet to record an away win. The hosts average 3 goals per home game with an xG of 1.69, while the visitors concede an average of 4 goals away from home and allow opponents chances worth an xG of 2.75. The attacking gulf is also reflected in Freiburg’s average of 5.5 shots on target at home, compared with Union’s just 1 shot on target away. Freiburg have, however, lost 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded 11 goals in those games, which adds uncertainty to the prediction. Union score just 0.33 goals per game away from home and have failed to score in 67% of such matches, so a home win remains by far the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring is Union’s poor away finishing: an average of 0.33 goals and an xG of 0.56, with just 1 shot on target per match. The visitors failed to score in 67% of these matches, while Freiburg kept a clean sheet in 40% of their home games. A home goal looks more likely, given Freiburg’s home xG of 1.71 and Union’s average of 4 goals conceded away, while allowing opponents an xG of 2.75. The main risk to the BTTS - No pick is Freiburg’s recent defensive form — 2.2 goals conceded per match across their last five appearances — but Union’s away scoring struggles support the expectation that at least one team will fail to score.

At home, Freiburg average 1.71 xG and 5.2 shots on target, while Union allow opponents 2.75 xG away from home and concede an average of 4.0 goals. This suggests the hosts could score at least twice on their own, although Union’s average of 1.4 goals conceded over their last five matches tempers expectations for higher lines. The visitors score just 0.33 goals per away match and have failed to score in 67% of those games, so their contribution to the total is assessed cautiously. Over 1.5 goals is the line with the strongest case: it has landed in 60% of Freiburg’s home matches and 100% of Union’s away matches, with the projected total at 3.1 goals.

A draw at half-time followed by a Freiburg win at full-time appears the most likely outcome. In their last five matches, regardless of venue, Union were level at the break three times and kept a clean sheet in the first half four times, pointing to a closely contested start. After the break, the hosts should gain the upper hand: they average 0.8 goals in second halves at home, while Union concede an average of 2.33 goals in second halves away from home. Freiburg also create significantly more chances, recording a home xG of 1.71 compared with Union’s away xG of 0.56, while the visitors score an average of just 0.33 goals per away match. Freiburg to lead at the break remains a notable alternative, as Union were trailing at half-time in two of their three analysed away matches; however, their recent half-time results lend slightly stronger support to the X/1 scenario.