Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: match statistics

Freiburg have been in clearly better form over their last five matches: they won 4 games and collected 12 points, while Werder Bremen managed just 1 victory and accumulated 5 points. The hosts scored 14 goals during this period, averaging 2.8 per match, which is twice as many as Werder’s 7 goals. Both teams conceded 6 goals in their five appearances, but Freiburg’s far greater attacking efficiency compensates for their similar defensive record. In addition, Freiburg sit 8th in the home table, while Werder are bottom, in 18th place in the away standings. The advantage in form and goalscoring potential points to a Freiburg victory, although Werder’s two draws in five matches increase the likelihood of a closely contested result.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive, as Freiburg averaged 2.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Werder Bremen averaged 1.4. The hosts recorded BTTS in 60% of those games, compared with 40% for the visitors, which lowers confidence but does not rule out a Goal/Goal scenario. Werder produced a very high average xG of 2.31 during this period, clearly above Freiburg’s 1.69, so they should create genuine chances despite playing away. Both teams conceded 1.2 goals per match across their last five outings, while Freiburg scored 14 goals in total, strengthening the chances of a response from both sides. The lack of complete season data limits the strength of the prediction, but current chance creation and scoring consistency point slightly towards BTTS - Yes.

Freiburg have scored 14 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.8 per game, while Werder conceded 1.2 goals per match during this period. The hosts created chances worth an average of 1.69 xG, whereas Werder, despite their weaker results, generated as much as 2.31 xG per match, indicating genuine attacking potential on both sides. Freiburg conceded 6 goals in five appearances, the same as Werder, meaning neither defense has consistently shown the profile of a unit capable of keeping matches tight. The 2.5 line was covered in 80% of Freiburg’s recent matches and 60% of Werder’s games, supporting a scenario with at least three goals. However, the strongest pick remains Over 1.5, as the projected 3.25 goals provide a very substantial safety margin against this line.

Freiburg have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.8 goals per game, while Werder have recorded just 1 victory and averaged 1.4 goals. The hosts led at the break in 60% of these matches and scored an average of 1.0 goal before half-time, whereas Bremen managed only 0.5 goals per first half. After the interval, Freiburg’s advantage remains clear: they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, compared with 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded by the visitors. Werder were unbeaten at half-time in their last five appearances, although as many as 50% of those first halves ended level, and their overall record comprised 2 losses and 2 draws. The most likely scenario is therefore Freiburg making the most of their superior attacking form before the break and maintaining their lead until the final whistle.