FS Jelgava vs Super Nova: match statistics
FS Jelgava vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
FS Jelgava played Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 6 May 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
FS Jelgava: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Super Nova: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
FS Jelgava scores 0.70 and concedes 2.20 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.10 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.86 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: FS Jelgava 40%, Super Nova 70%. Over 2.5: FS Jelgava 40%, Super Nova 60%. League level: BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
FS Jelgava has higher xG: 1.23 vs 1.11. FS Jelgava: 9.4 shots per match, Super Nova: 8.2.
Match halves
FS Jelgava: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.20. Super Nova: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
FS Jelgava: 0-15 (2 goals). Super Nova: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.86 goals per match, BTTS 60%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-3-0. Average goals 1.60, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Super Nova is the clear statistical favorite: they sit 5th and have 67% wins away with an average of 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match, while FS Jelgava are 9th with only 20% home wins. Visitors average 3.33 shots on target and have a 14% conversion rate; hosts average 2.8 SoT with a 10% conversion. Additionally, Jelgava fail to score in 60% of home games versus 17% of Super Nova’s away matches. xG is nearly identical (1.12 vs 1.13), but Jelgava’s defense looks worse — average xG against 1.65 and actually 2.8 goals conceded at home versus 1.44 xG against and 1.0 goals conceded for the visitors. Both teams have conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches, but Super Nova have 33% clean sheets away vs 0% for Jelgava at home and superior finishing, which gives them the edge. Considering these figures, I predict an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I select the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario with a 75% probability because the strongest signal is the seasonal BTTS rate for FS Jelgava at 100%, alongside 50% BTTS for Super Nova and 60% BTTS in the league. FS Jelgava concedes an average of 2.25 goals per match (22 conceded this season), while Super Nova scores an average of 1.17 goals and generates xG 1.13, which combined with xG against the hosts of 1.86 indicates a realistic chance for the away side to score. Super Nova concedes 1.0 goal per match and has a 33% clean sheet rate, but Jelgava has a 0% clean sheet rate and in the last 5 matches conceded an average of 2.0 goals and scored 0.8 goals, demonstrating significant defensive vulnerability for the hosts. Additionally, in the last 5 fixtures BTTS occurred 40% for Jelgava and 60% for Super Nova, and the league averages 2.86 goals per match, confirming a tendency for both teams to find the net.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model indicates xG 1.26 for FS Jelgava and 1.50 for Super Nova, totaling 2.76 expected goals, which exceeds the 2.5 line. Jelgava concedes on average 2.25 goals per match (22 goals conceded this season) and has xG against 1.86, while Super Nova has xG_for 1.13 and scores on average 1.17 goals per match; these figures point to more created chances. Season-to-date 75% of Jelgava’s matches and 50% of Super Nova’s matches finished Over 2.5 goals, and the league averages 2.86 goals per game, supporting the over scenario. Additionally, the home side has 100% BTTS this season and average shots of 8.25 and 8.17 for the two teams, which increases the likelihood of further goals, so the strongest data-driven signal is Over 2.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely HT/FT scenario is 2/2 (away team leads at the break and ultimately wins) — I assign it a 49% probability. The justification is data-driven: Super Nova have won 67% of their matches this season and have accumulated 9 points before half-time (an average of 1.5 points per match by the break), whereas FS Jelgava have no home wins (0% win rate) and have not led at the break in any home game (0%). Home teams concede on average 1.75 goals before half-time, while the away side concedes only 0.17 goals before the break; additionally, Jelgava have conceded 5 goals in minutes 31–45, indicating a high likelihood of the away team scoring before half-time. Qualitative stats also favour Super Nova: xG 1.13 versus the hosts’ 1.07, the hosts’ xG against is 1.86 versus 1.44 for the visitors, and average on-target shots are 3.33 for the away team versus 2.75 for the home side. Consequently the model assigns 49% to 2/2, 30% to X/2, 4% to 2/X and low probabilities to the remaining scenarios where the home team finishes victorious.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| FS Jelgava | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
FS Jelgava is 33% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - FS Jelgava · 0.6 pts / match - Super Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Super Nova is 57% better for: goals scored per match.
0.7 goals / match - FS Jelgava · 1.1 goals / match - Super Nova
Super Nova is 47% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.2 goals / match - FS Jelgava · 1.5 goals / match - Super Nova
FS Jelgava scores in 50% of matches (5 of 10 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 matches).
Super Nova scores in 90% of matches (9 of 10 matches), while FS Jelgava keeps a clean sheet in 10% (1 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - FS Jelgava
Over / Under - Super Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
FS Jelgava is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.2 pts / match - FS Jelgava · 1 pts / match - Super Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
FS Jelgava - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 20%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| FS Jelgava | Liga | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.90 | 2.86 | ▼ 2.60 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 40% | 60% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 50% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 10% | 20% | • 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 74% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 86% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): FS Jelgava 2 - 3 - 0 Super Nova. Average goals 1.60, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
The Virsliga match finished FS Jelgava 1:0 Super Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between FS Jelgava and Super Nova?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches FS Jelgava won 2, Super Nova won 0 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 1.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
FS Jelgava score 0.70 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.10. The Virsliga average is 2.86 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 40% of FS Jelgava's matches and 70% of Super Nova's.
What form are FS Jelgava and Super Nova in?
Over the last 5 games FS Jelgava have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Super Nova 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.