FS Jelgava vs Tukums: match statistics
FS Jelgava vs Tukums: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
FS Jelgava played Tukums in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 21 June 2026. Venue: Zemgales Olimpiskā centra. Final score: 4:1.
Current form
FS Jelgava: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Tukums: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
FS Jelgava scores 0.72 and concedes 1.83 goals per match. Tukums scores 1.78 and concedes 1.78. League average: 2.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: FS Jelgava 44%, Tukums 89%. Over 2.5: FS Jelgava 33%, Tukums 72%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Tukums has higher xG: 1.38 vs 1.24. FS Jelgava: 9.9 shots per match, Tukums: 11.4.
Match halves
FS Jelgava: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.22. Tukums: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.94.
Goals by minute
FS Jelgava: 0-15 (4 goals). Tukums: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 2-3-1. Average goals 2.83, BTTS 83%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (Tukums). Tukums has a clear offensive advantage: 32 goals scored this season versus Jelgava's 13, and an average of 1.38 goals away compared to the hosts' 0.78 at home. The visitors average 4.5 shots on target per match with a 12% shot conversion, while Jelgava records 3.44 shots on target and a 7% conversion, and xG for both teams is similar (1.37 vs 1.31), indicating better efficiency from Tukums with comparable chance quality. Both teams are vulnerable defensively: Jelgava concedes 2.00 goals at home, Tukums 2.25 away, and average xG against is 1.63 and 1.64, so I expect an open game with goals. Note also that Tukums have no away wins this season (win% 0) and register 50% draws on the road, so a draw remains a realistic outcome despite the visitors' advantage.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams give a strong BTTS signal: FS Jelgava has 90% of matches with both teams scoring this season, Tukums 88%, while the league BTTS rate is 60%. In the last 5 matches Jelgava had BTTS in 60% of games, Tukums in 80%; in those five matches Jelgava scored 3 goals (0.6 avg) and conceded 9 (1.8), and Tukums scored 5 (1.0) and conceded 11 (2.2). xG shows both sides create roughly 1.39 and 1.37 xG per match while allowing 1.65 and 1.64 xG, indicating an exchange of goal-scoring opportunities; average shots on target 5.2 vs 4.5 further confirm chance creation. Additionally clean sheets are rare (10% for Jelgava and 0% for Tukums), and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 70% and 75% of cases, which increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. Based on this I rate BTTS - Yes at 88% vs 12% No Goal, due to the dominant seasonal signals 90%/88% and the very low probability of a clean sheet 10%/0%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I expect approximately 2.76 total goals in the match (xG: 1.39 for FS Jelgava vs 1.37 for Tukums), which indicates a high likelihood of goals. This season both teams have 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals, and the share of matches where both teams scored is 90% for Jelgava and 88% for Tukums, significantly increasing the chance of goals from both sides. Jelgava averages 5.2 shots on target with an 18% conversion, and Tukums 4.5 shots on target with a 12% conversion; their seasonal over 2.5 rates are 70% and 75% (average ~73%), so Over 2.5 is also likely. In the last 5 matches Jelgava scored 3 and conceded 9 goals (0.6 scored, 1.8 conceded per game), and Tukums scored 5 and conceded 11 (1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded), indicating both teams’ vulnerability to conceding. Given these figures the best pick is Over 1.5 — a strong signal (100% this season) supported by an xG of 2.76 and a high incidence of Over 2.5 (~73%), while Over 3.5 remains less clear (around 39%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). Statistics show a half-time draw for the home side in 40% of matches, while home teams led only 30%, which gives an advantage to a draw at the break. Full-time results also favor draws: home teams draw 40% of matches, away teams 50%, and away teams have no away wins (0%), so a decisive result is less likely. The xG of both teams is almost identical (1.39 versus 1.37) and the average shots on target are 5.2 vs 4.5, suggesting an even game; on that basis I estimate that a half-time draw will hold until the end in about 66% of HT draws, giving X/X roughly a 26% probability. Therefore I recommend the X/X selection as the strongest signal — the high proportion of HT draws (40%), the high proportion of FT draws (40–50%) and the similar xG (1.39/1.37) provide a logical rationale for this pick.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| FS Jelgava | Tukums | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tukums is 33% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - FS Jelgava · 0.8 pts / match - Tukums
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tukums is 147% better for: goals scored per match.
0.72 goals / match - FS Jelgava · 1.78 goals / match - Tukums
FS Jelgava scores in 56% of matches (10 of 18 matches), while Tukums keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 18 matches).
Tukums scores in 94% of matches (17 of 18 matches), while FS Jelgava keeps a clean sheet in 17% (3 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - FS Jelgava
Over / Under - Tukums
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
FS Jelgava is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - FS Jelgava · 1 pts / match - Tukums
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
FS Jelgava - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tukums - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
FS Jelgava
Tukums
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| FS Jelgava | Liga | Tukums | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.56 | 2.93 | ▲ 3.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 59% | ▲ 89% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 53% | ▲ 72% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 22% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 72% | 76% | ▲ 89% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 83% | 85% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): FS Jelgava 2 - 3 - 1 Tukums. Average goals 2.83, both teams scored in 83% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of FS Jelgava vs Tukums?
The Virsliga match finished FS Jelgava 4:1 Tukums. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between FS Jelgava and Tukums?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches FS Jelgava won 2, Tukums won 1 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.83 goals, with both teams scoring in 83% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before FS Jelgava vs Tukums?
FS Jelgava score 0.72 goals per game on average and Tukums 1.78. The Virsliga average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 44% of FS Jelgava's matches and 89% of Tukums's.
What form are FS Jelgava and Tukums in?
Over the last 5 games FS Jelgava have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Tukums 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for FS Jelgava vs Tukums?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for FS Jelgava vs Tukums: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.