Fulham vs Chelsea: match statistics

Fulham come into this fixture in slightly more stable form: they have collected 8 points from their last five matches, thanks to 2 wins and 2 draws, while Chelsea have accumulated 7 points. The hosts have scored 8 goals and conceded just 5 during this period, giving them a positive goal difference of +3; Chelsea have found the net 10 times but have conceded 7 goals. The Craven Cottage side have suffered only 1 defeat in their last five outings, whereas the visitors have lost twice, further highlighting Fulham’s advantage in terms of current consistency. Chelsea sit higher in the table, 6th compared with 10th, but the available data on recent results and the hosts’ tighter defence point towards a narrow Fulham victory. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Fulham have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches, while Chelsea have also shared the points once.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as both Fulham and Chelsea recorded a “Both Teams To Score” result in 60% of their last 5 matches. During this period, Fulham averaged 1.6 goals scored with an xG of 1.61, while Chelsea conceded 1.4 goals per match and allowed opponents an xG of 1.30. Chelsea showed even greater attacking efficiency, averaging 2.0 goals in their last 5 appearances, whereas Fulham conceded an average of 1.0 goal. However, the hosts have a solid defence, which reduces confidence in a Chelsea goal, as their average xG conceded is only 0.99. Despite this, the combination of Chelsea’s consistently productive attack and Fulham’s strong offensive form slightly favours the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal outcome.

Both teams are in strong attacking form: Fulham have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Chelsea have scored 10, averaging 1.6 and 2.0 goals per game, respectively. During this period, the hosts created chances worth an average of 1.61 xG, while Chelsea recorded 1.50 xG, supporting a forecast of around 2.80 total goals. The 2.5 line was covered in 3 of Fulham’s last 5 matches and in as many as 4 of Chelsea’s last 5 games, although the edge over this line remains moderate. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams score regularly, while Chelsea have conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game, compared with 1.0 goals conceded by Fulham.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: Fulham were level at the break in all of their last five matches, while Chelsea were level in three of their last five. Both teams have identical first-half figures, scoring and conceding an average of 0.6 goals, which limits the case for either side holding a clear advantage before half-time. After the break, however, Fulham concede only 0.4 goals per match, whereas Chelsea allow opponents 0.8, while the hosts score an average of 1.0 goal during this period. Fulham have lost only one of their last five matches and averaged 1.6 points, compared with Chelsea's two defeats and average of 1.4 points. Chelsea have been scoring more recently, averaging 2.0 goals per match compared with Fulham's 1.6, which is why the draw–home win scenario has a moderate, rather than dominant, edge over the draw–away win scenario.