Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju: match statistics

Gimpo Citizen remain unbeaten in their last five league matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws with a 6:4 goal difference, but are still without a home victory: as many as 80% of their home games have ended in draws. Cheongju have lost 0% of their away matches, but they have also won very rarely, with 89% of their games on the road ending in a share of the points. The hosts create considerably more chances, averaging 17.6 shots and an xG of 2.03, compared with 9.78 shots and an xG of 1.29 for the visitors; however, this has translated into just 1.00 goal per home game. Cheongju are more clinical away from home, averaging 1.33 goals with a 14% conversion rate, while conceding only 1.22 goals per match, giving them a solid foundation to respond to Gimpo’s creative advantage. A draw is the most likely outcome, probably with both teams scoring.

The seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams score is very high: 80% for Gimpo Citizen and 78% for Cheongju, clearly above the league average of 64%. Gimpo concedes an average of 1.90 goals per match, while Cheongju scores 1.33, giving the visitors a solid foundation for finding the net. Meanwhile, the hosts create chances worth an average xG of 1.45, while Cheongju’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.29 and keeps a clean sheet in only 22% of matches. In their last five games, Gimpo recorded BTTS in 80% of cases, while Cheongju scored an average of 1.8 goals, although their BTTS rate fell to 60%. Additionally, neither team is particularly prone to failing to score, as this occurred in only 10% of Gimpo’s matches and 22% of Cheongju’s. Therefore, the most likely outcome is BTTS - Yes.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5, as at least two goals were scored in 80% of Gimpo Citizen’s matches and 78% of Cheongju’s fixtures. Both teams regularly find the net: the hosts scored in 90% of their matches, while the visitors did so in 78%, with a simultaneously low clean-sheet rate of 20% and 22%, respectively. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.45 xG, while Cheongju average 1.29 xG, supporting a forecast of 2.74 goals in the match overall. In their last five appearances, Gimpo generated as much as 2.07 xG per match, while Cheongju averaged 1.8 goals, so the attacking potential remains clear. The 2.5 line also leans slightly towards the over, but its edge is smaller, as only 20% of Gimpo’s last five matches featured more than three goals.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Gimpo have been level at the break in 50% of their matches and Cheongju in 33%, with an average of just 1.20 and 0.89 goals scored in the first halves, respectively. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored only 0.25 goals before half-time, while Cheongju have averaged 0.40, limiting the chances of either side establishing a clear advantage from the outset. After the interval, however, Gimpo have the better current record: they average 1.0 goals scored, concede just 0.25, and have collected 2.0 points per match in second halves. Over the same period, Cheongju have conceded an average of 1.0 goals after the break and collected 1.2 points, which is why a half-time draw followed by a turnaround in favour of the hosts is the scenario best supported by the data. On a season-long basis, Gimpo also have the higher attacking xG, 1.45 compared with the opponents' 1.29, further supporting the scenario of them closing out the match with a win after a cautious start.