Gnistan vs Ilves: match statistics

Gnistan have a clearly stronger home profile: they win 56% of such matches, while Ilves win just 10% of their away games and lose as many as 60%. The hosts score an average of 1.89 goals per match in front of their home crowd, with an xG of 1.66, whereas the visitors concede as many as 2.30 goals away from home and allow opponents an xG of 1.73. Gnistan are also more effective at creating chances, recording 5.56 shots on target and 14.89 attempts per match compared with Ilves’ 4.8 shots on target and 13.8 attempts. The teams’ recent form is similar, with Gnistan scoring 10 goals and winning 3 of their last 5 matches, while Ilves have also recorded 3 victories but scored only 5 goals during that period. Home advantage and Ilves’ poor away defensive record point towards a home win, although Gnistan’s average of 1.56 goals conceded at home gives the visitors a realistic chance of scoring.

A scenario with both teams scoring is slightly more likely, as Ilves have recorded BTTS in as many as 80% of their away matches and have not kept a single clean sheet, conceding an average of 2.30 goals. Gnistan score an average of 1.78 goals at home and have netted 10 goals in their last five matches, so they should be able to exploit the visitors’ defensive weakness. Ilves still possess attacking arguments: they average 13.8 shots, 4.8 shots on target and create 1.54 xG, while the xG against Gnistan stands at 1.45. The risk to this pick is the home defence, which has kept a clean sheet in 67% of home matches, as well as Ilves’ recent run with only 20% BTTS, but the long-term away data provide stronger support for an away goal. Therefore, the most likely outcome remains one in which both teams score at least once.

Gnistan score an average of 1.78 goals at home, while Ilves concede as many as 2.30 away from home, clearly supporting at least one goal for the hosts. Ilves score 1.50 goals per away match, while the average xG figures for both teams point to open chances: 1.26 for Gnistan and 1.54 for the visitors. Over 1.5 goals landed in 67% of Gnistan’s matches and 90% of Ilves’ games, while the visitors have failed to keep a single clean sheet. In their last five league rounds, Gnistan scored 10 goals, although Ilves have improved defensively and conceded just 3, making the 2.5 line more evenly balanced. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, supported by the consistent scoring of both sides and Ilves’ particularly weak away defence.

Gnistan have a clear home advantage in terms of results: they average 2.11 points per match, win 67% of their games and concede just 0.89 goals, while Ilves average only 0.60 points away from home and lose 60% of their matches. The strongest signal concerns the first half: the hosts were leading at the break in 56% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.11 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.44, whereas the visitors concede as many as 1.50 goals per game during this period. Ilves have kept a clean sheet in none of their away matches and allow opponents an average of 2.30 goals over the full game, which supports Gnistan maintaining their lead after the break. The visitors’ recent form over their last five matches is better, as they have won three times and conceded an average of 0.6 goals, but Gnistan have also won three times and were leading at half-time in four of those five games. Therefore, the most likely scenario is an HT/FT outcome in which the hosts take the lead before half-time and hold on for the win.