Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates balanced chances for both teams, which favors a draw. Gor Mahia displays unstable home form with a 43% win rate and 43% loss rate, and their last five home matches have been a series of unpredictable results. TransMara Sugar stands out with an impressive 60% draw rate away from home and remains unbeaten in away matches this season, indicating solid defensive organization. The visitors boast a better away goal difference (+2) and a higher average goals scored (1.2 vs 1.0), as well as a lower rate of matches without a goal scored (20% vs 29%). Considering TransMara Sugar's away stability and the hosts' low efficiency in home matches, the most likely scenario is a share of the points, although Gor Mahia as the home side retains a chance for victory.
Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Gor Mahia played TransMara Sugar in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The match was played on 18 January 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Gor Mahia: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. TransMara Sugar: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Gor Mahia scores 1.44 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. TransMara Sugar scores 0.81 and concedes 0.75. League average: 1.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Gor Mahia 38%, TransMara Sugar 38%. Over 2.5: Gor Mahia 25%, TransMara Sugar 19%. League level: BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 31%.
xG, shots and style
TransMara Sugar has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.50. Gor Mahia: 10.1 shots per match, TransMara Sugar: 11.4.
Match halves
Gor Mahia: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.44. TransMara Sugar: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.38.
Goals by minute
Gor Mahia: 0-15 (13 goals). TransMara Sugar: 0-15 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kenyan Premier League: 1.93 goals per match, BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 31%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates balanced chances for both teams, which favors a draw. Gor Mahia displays unstable home form with a 43% win rate and 43% loss rate, and their last five home matches have been a series of unpredictable results. TransMara Sugar stands out with an impressive 60% draw rate away from home and remains unbeaten in away matches this season, indicating solid defensive organization. The visitors boast a better away goal difference (+2) and a higher average goals scored (1.2 vs 1.0), as well as a lower rate of matches without a goal scored (20% vs 29%). Considering TransMara Sugar's away stability and the hosts' low efficiency in home matches, the most likely scenario is a share of the points, although Gor Mahia as the home side retains a chance for victory.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Gor Mahia | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 22% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gor Mahia is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Gor Mahia · 1.6 pts / match - TransMara Sugar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gor Mahia is 78% better for: goals scored per match.
1.44 goals / match - Gor Mahia · 0.81 goals / match - TransMara Sugar
Gor Mahia scores in 81% of matches (13 of 16 matches), while TransMara Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 44% (7 of 16 matches).
TransMara Sugar scores in 56% of matches (9 of 16 matches), while Gor Mahia keeps a clean sheet in 50% (8 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Gor Mahia
Over / Under - TransMara Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gor Mahia is 73% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.63 pts / match - Gor Mahia · 0.94 pts / match - TransMara Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gor Mahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
TransMara Sugar - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (13 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Gor Mahia
TransMara Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Gor Mahia | Liga | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.19 | 1.93 | ▼ 1.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 42% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 31% | ▼ 19% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 37% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 38% | 32% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 44% | 35% | ▼ 31% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished Gor Mahia 3:0 TransMara Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar?
Gor Mahia score 1.44 goals per game on average and TransMara Sugar 0.81. The Kenyan Premier League average is 1.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 31% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Gor Mahia's matches and 38% of TransMara Sugar's.
What form are Gor Mahia and TransMara Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Gor Mahia have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and TransMara Sugar 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.