Gorica vs Hajduk Split: match statistics

Hajduk Split have a clearly superior record over their last five matches: they have collected 7 points and scored 10 goals, while Gorica have managed 3 points and just 3 goals. The hosts failed to score in their only home match, losing 0:2, and have found the net in 0% of their home appearances, which significantly limits their chances. The visitors create more high-quality opportunities away from home, averaging 1.44 xG compared with Gorica’s 1.19 xG at home, while also allowing opponents a considerably lower xG: 1.22 versus 2.68 for the hosts. Hajduk also average 10 shots and 5 on target away from home, compared with Gorica’s 9 and 4, while their 54% possession should help them dictate the tempo. The visitors’ defence is not flawless either, as both teams concede an average of 2 goals in their respective home and away matches. Therefore, a draw remains a realistic alternative, but Hajduk’s attacking advantage points to an away win.

BTTS - Yes is supported by the season profile, as both teams have recorded this scenario in 100% of their matches, while neither has kept a clean sheet. At home, Gorica averages 2.13 xG and 7 shots on target per match, while Hajduk records 1.44 xG and 5 shots on target. However, the hosts’ recent form is a clear risk, as they have scored only 3 goals in five matches, recorded BTTS in 20% of games, and generated just 1.06 xG. Hajduk scored 10 goals over the same period but also conceded 10, with an average xG against of 1.54, increasing Gorica’s chances of breaking through. BTTS - Yes remains a marginally stronger pick, also compared with the league average of 78%, although Gorica’s reduced attacking efficiency prevents this signal from being rated as very strong.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have conceded an average of at least 1.6 goals in their last five matches: Gorica 1.6 and Hajduk as many as 2.0. Hajduk scored 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per game, while Gorica’s defense allowed opponents an xG of 1.93. The hosts scored only 3 goals in five matches, but Hajduk also conceded 10, and its average xG against stands at 1.54, giving Gorica a realistic chance of scoring. The projected total of 3.00 goals and the league average of 3.89 goals support a scenario with at least two goals, although Gorica’s lower attacking efficiency limits confidence in Over 2.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hajduk win at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Gorica. Both teams tend to play cautiously in the first half: Gorica average 0.4 goals and Hajduk 0.6, with an average of 1.2 goals in each team’s matches. After the break, the form advantage shifts to Hajduk, who have averaged 1.4 goals across their last five matches, while Gorica have managed just 0.2. The visitors have won 40% of their recent matches and averaged 2.0 goals per game, whereas the hosts have lost 80% of their matches, scoring only 0.6 goals on average. An additional argument is Hajduk’s superior attacking quality in the recent period, combined with Gorica’s poor finishing, as they failed to score in 80% of the second halves in their last five appearances.