Gorica vs Varaždin: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates highly balanced probabilities for both sides, suggesting a draw as the most probable outcome. Gorica sits in 8th place and struggles with home form, suffering a 56% loss rate on their own turf, yet they maintain a slight edge in possession (52%) and a marginally better goal difference in home fixtures (-4 vs -5 for Varaždin away). Despite a higher league position (6th), Varaždin displays poor away form, winning just 22% of away games and failing to score in 44% of matches. Both teams share an identical loss rate (56%), and their recent form is comparable (Gorica 0.8 PPG, Varaždin 1.0 PPG in the last 5 matches). The average xG for both teams in the respective contexts is very similar (1.36 vs 1.18), further confirming the even nature of this clash. Considering all factors, I anticipate a tight, competitive encounter with a slight advantage for the hosts, likely ending in a share of the points.
Gorica vs Varaždin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Gorica played Varaždin in Prva HNL (Croatia). The match was played on 26 January 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Gorica: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Varaždin: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Gorica scores 1.17 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Varaždin scores 1.22 and concedes 1.39. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Gorica 67%, Varaždin 61%. Over 2.5: Gorica 50%, Varaždin 50%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Varaždin has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.39. Gorica: 11.4 shots per match, Varaždin: 12.3.
Match halves
Gorica: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.50. Varaždin: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Gorica: 16-30 (7 goals). Varaždin: 0-15 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prva HNL: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates highly balanced probabilities for both sides, suggesting a draw as the most probable outcome. Gorica sits in 8th place and struggles with home form, suffering a 56% loss rate on their own turf, yet they maintain a slight edge in possession (52%) and a marginally better goal difference in home fixtures (-4 vs -5 for Varaždin away). Despite a higher league position (6th), Varaždin displays poor away form, winning just 22% of away games and failing to score in 44% of matches. Both teams share an identical loss rate (56%), and their recent form is comparable (Gorica 0.8 PPG, Varaždin 1.0 PPG in the last 5 matches). The average xG for both teams in the respective contexts is very similar (1.36 vs 1.18), further confirming the even nature of this clash. Considering all factors, I anticipate a tight, competitive encounter with a slight advantage for the hosts, likely ending in a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Gorica | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varaždin is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - Gorica · 1.39 goals / match - Varaždin
Gorica scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while Varaždin keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 matches).
Varaždin scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while Gorica keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Gorica
Over / Under - Varaždin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gorica is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.44 pts / match - Gorica · 1.28 pts / match - Varaždin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gorica - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 28%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Varaždin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Gorica
Varaždin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prva HNL).
Teams vs league
| Gorica | Liga | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.67 | 2.73 | ▼ 2.61 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 63% | ▼ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 54% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 6% | 22% | • 22% |
| Goal before half-time | • 78% | 79% | ▼ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 84% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Gorica 0 - 1 - 1 Varaždin. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Gorica vs Varaždin?
The Prva HNL match finished Gorica 1:2 Varaždin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Gorica and Varaždin?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Gorica won 0, Varaždin won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Gorica vs Varaždin?
Gorica score 1.17 goals per game on average and Varaždin 1.22. The Prva HNL average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Gorica's matches and 61% of Varaždin's.
What form are Gorica and Varaždin in?
Over the last 5 games Gorica have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Varaždin 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gorica vs Varaždin?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.