Granada CF vs Albacete Balompié: match statistics

Granada come into this match with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last five games, while Albacete have lost all 5 of their most recent fixtures. At home, the hosts have won 100% of their matches, averaging 2 goals scored and having yet to concede, which stands in stark contrast to Albacete’s away average of 0.5 goals scored and 2 conceded per game. Granada create more danger, averaging 13 shots and 6 on target, compared with the visitors’ 9 shots and 3.5 on target, while the hosts’ conversion rate stands at 15%, versus just 6% for their opponents. Albacete have failed to earn a point in four league rounds, have a 2:7 goal difference, and have failed to score in 50% of their away matches. Although Granada allow opponents an xG of 1.75, their excellent home defensive record and the visitors’ very poor attacking form strongly point towards a home win.

The BTTS signal is primarily weakened by both teams’ low scoring efficiency across the season: Granada and Albacete average just 0.5 goals per match each. Granada recorded BTTS in only 20% of its last five matches, while its defence conceded just 0.8 goals per game during that period. Albacete have lost their last five matches in a row, scoring a total of 3 goals, and average only 0.6 goals per game, which limits the visitors’ chances of scoring despite their 1.24 xG. The hosts should create chances, given their average xG of 1.62 and the fact that Albacete allow opponents 2.0 xG, but this does not guarantee a goal for both sides. In addition, the league’s BTTS rate stands at just 39%, making a scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely. In other words, the recommended market is BTTS - No: it means that at least one team will not score, not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

In their last five matches, Granada averaged 1.6 goals scored and conceded just 0.8, while Albacete managed only 0.6 goals scored and conceded 1.8. The hosts create chances with an average xG of 1.62, while Albacete’s defence allows opponents an xG of 2.00, which is why the largest share of the goals projection falls to Granada. At the same time, neither team has been involved in a league match with at least 4 goals so far, while the league-wide average stands at just 2.27 goals. Each team has also recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 50% of matches in the current data, limiting the case for a highly open game. The projected total of 2.35 goals therefore indicates that Under 3.5 goals is the safest option.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Granada win, as the hosts have scored only 0.4 goals before the break in their last five matches, compared with Albacete’s 0.2. The visitors were trailing at half-time in three of their last five games, while Granada led after 45 minutes in two of five matches, reducing the likelihood of one side establishing a clear advantage from the outset. After the break, the hosts’ advantage increases: Granada average 1.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, whereas Albacete score 0.4 and allow opponents 0.8 goals. Recent full-time results also strongly favour the hosts, who have won three of their last five matches, while Albacete have lost all five. In addition, Granada’s xG stands at 1.62, while the visitors’ defence allows an average of 2.00 xG, so the hosts should find it easier to turn an evenly balanced match in their favour after half-time.